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06.02.201810:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Demand for the US dollar is gradually rising

Dlouhodobá prognóza
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Yesterday, the US dollar managed to strengthen its position against risky assets. Good data on the state of the US economy and a sharp drop in US stock markets also forced investors to look at purchases of the US dollar by choosing it as a safe haven.

According to the report, the activity in the US services sector in January this year continued its growth and significantly accelerated compared with December 2017.

The report of the Institute of Supply Management stated that the index of supply managers for the non-manufacturing sphere of the US rose to 59.9 points in January against 56 points in December. Economists predicted that the index will be 56.5 points. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

Exchange Rates 06.02.2018 analysis

It is expected that the US economy will continue its growth at a good pace against the backdrop of a further increase in consumer spending, as well as an increase in the company's capital investment.

The US employment index rose in January this year. According to the report, the employment conference index in January turned out to be at 106.93 points against 106.59 points in December. In comparison with the previous year, the index grew by 5.4%.

The good economic indicators give an additional impetus to employment growth, which, as we already know after the Friday report, leads to a reduction in unemployment and the creation of new jobs.

In addition to good data on the American economy, the speech of the European Central Bank, President Mario Draghi, was also apprehended by traders and did not benefit the European currency.

Draghi said that he can not yet announce the victory on the inflation front, but the belief that inflation will rise to the target level was strengthened earlier this year. The main problem is the fact that the core inflation indicators do not yet demonstrate a stable upward trend.

Draghi also drew attention to the fact that the recent volatility of exchange rates created new obstacles, and therefore, the current situation in the foreign exchange market requires more careful monitoring.

Let me remind you that at the beginning of the year, there was the talk of verbal intervention from the ECB in view of the very high rate of the European currency, which will definitely hinder the restoration and growth of the region's economy.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, an unsuccessful attempt to return to the resistance area of 1.2400 could lead to the formation of another wave of risk assets sale, which will allow us to update the new weekly lows around 1.2340 and 1.2300.

Jakub Novak
analytik InstaForexu
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