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After two days of sales in the stock markets on Tuesday, there was a lull. Investors clearly took a pause in anticipation after a new wave of decline in stock indices.
On Tuesday, the US stock market closed on a positive note, adding an average of 2.0%. Here, the question arises, is it the end of a short correction? Is it time to rampantly buy further risky assets?
We believe that the potential for further weakening of the demand for risk remains high and this local rebound is more like a breather before the further fall of the stock indices. The US stock indexes will most likely draw a new local maximum, which will be lower than the previous one. This will be the reason for sales on full-scale technical factors.
It is most likely that the correction that was not completed indicates the resumption of sales of government bonds of the US Treasury. The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark rose by 0.40% to 2.777% at the time of the review. Note that yesterday, it fell to 2.648%. If the purchase of government securities is resumed, it will be possible to talk about continuing panic sentiments in the markets.
However, we go back to the foreign exchange market. After a slight increase in the day sales on world markets, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies. As before, we continue to believe that until March, before the release of new inflation data and the US economy as a whole, it has no reason to grow. That's when the new figures of inflation indicators will be published and if they show growth, as shown in the Fed chairman J. Powell's program statement where he will prove himself as a bigger "hawk" than a "dove", then the "Greenback" will have much more reasons for strengthening.
As for the likely dynamics in the markets today, we believe that caution is necessary since the fall in the stock market in the United States may resume.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair is likely to remain in the range of 1.2360-1.2500 today. However, if there will be sales in the US stock market again, you can expect its local decrease to 1.2300 or even to 1.2285.
The USDJPY pair is also consolidating but if the markets begin selling again, the demand for protective assets will increase and the pair may fall to 108.25 after overcoming the 109.00 level.
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