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After reaching the resistance line in January, almost the price moved down in the entire month of February. In March, there is a high probability of working the top after reaching the support line 1.3708.
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
The price will start moving upward after reaching the support line 1.3699. In March, this will pass under the motto of the top work.
Fig. 1 (monthly chart)
Indicator analysis on the monthly schedule (Figure 2)
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2) for the GBP / USD pair
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).
Overall: the MACD indicator on the monthly chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (trend of the week).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (the trend of the week).
21 middle EMA line - brown color (trend of the week).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue), moving up, is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow), which moved upwards and the signal is up.
At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow), moving up, is below the 21 middle line of the EMA (black), which moved upwards - weakening the signal of the top work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the monthly chart gives an upward signal.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
- average EMA lines - 24% up;
- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% down.
A summary of the indicator analysis: the price on the monthly chart should have a downward trend.
Calculation of the first shadow of the month (the first week) on a monthly chart.
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.
The "three lines" in the indicator (the direction of lines in the indicators of CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) are the lower signal.
The calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the upper signal.
The bottom line: On the technical analysis for the month of March, the monthly candlestick calculation showed that the price movement in the first week of March will be the top, but finally, the weekly schedule will answer this question definitively.
Calculation of the second shadow of the month (last week) on the monthly schedule.
The calculation for the MACD linear part - gave a downward trend (100 points down).
Calculation of the MACD histogram - gave a downward trend (100 points down).
The bottom line: On the technical analysis for the calculation of the last week of March showed that the last week of the month the price will have a downward trend, which should be confirmed on the weekly schedule.
Fig. 2 (monthly chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
Conclusion on the complex analysis is possibly the top.
The total result of the calculation of the GBP / USD currency pair candle on a monthly chart: the price is most likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is white) in the monthly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week is black).
The upper target is the level of 1.3952 with the retracement level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).
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