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As in the situation with the single European currency, the pound remained practically unchanged, and due to the almost total absence of any statistical data, repeated the behavior of the euro. Only on Friday there were data on industrial production, which showed an acceleration of growth rates from 0.0% to 1.6%. And although this turned out to be worse than the forecasts, as they were waiting for growth to 1.8%, it was still regarded positively.
If we talk about US statistics, then the week started not so positively, as production orders dropped by 1.4%. Closer to Friday came a series of indirect data on the labor market, which preceded the Friday report of the US Department of Labor and did not allow any forward-reaching conclusions. On the one hand, employment increased by 235 thousand with a forecast of 195 thousand. But it all turned out to be a slowdown in the rate of employment growth, as the previous data was revised upwards from 234 thousand to 244 thousand. The number of initial applications for benefits unemployment increased from 210 thousand to 231 thousand, but the number of repeat ones, on the contrary, decreased from 1,934 thousand to 1,870 thousand. The same report of the Ministry of Labor surprised the market somewhat. Thus, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, and the growth rate of the average hourly wages slowed from 2.8% to 2.6%. But all this was compensated by the creation of 313,000 new jobs, an increase in the average length of the working week from 34.3 hours to 34.5 hours, and an increase in the proportion of the workforce in the total population from 62.7% to 63.0%. But in the remainder of the remainder, we still see a decline in aggregate income, as the average growth rate of the average hourly wage slowed by 7.1%, while the working week's duration increased by only 0.6%. Another negative factor was the fact that commodity stocks in wholesale warehouses increased by 0.8%.
The trouble is that this week there is absolutely no data from the UK, so the pound will again repeat the dynamics of the single European currency, which depends more on US statistics. If we talk about the state of affairs in the US, then inflation can accelerate from 2.1% to 2.2%, and the growth rate of retail sales from 3.6% to 3.8%. However, not everything is so cloudless, as commercial reserves should increase by 0.5%. Also, the number of construction permits issued should be reduced by 12.3%, although this will be offset by a 6% increase in the number of construction projects started.
The pound / dollar pair will continue to decline slightly and by the end of the week will drop to 1.3725.
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