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Today, the focus of the market is the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. Investors are waiting for the final statement of the regulator, as well as statements with comments of its head, Mario Draghi.
It is assumed that the message of the bank will feature the idea of a cautious, wait-and-see attitude toward stopping stimulus measures in September this year. It is likely that the bank and Draghi will pay considerable attention to the explanations as to why it is necessary to closely monitor the output of statistics, as well as other factors that will deter the regulator's desire to stop stimulus measures.
The Bank and Draghi will explain the cautious stance by the likely expansion of trade wars. The fact that Donald Trump will not calm down will most likely mean that these risks for the euro area will remain real. In addition, the theme of strengthening the euro exchange rate may be raised, which has a deterrent effect on inflation and reduces the competitive ability of European companies in the world market. The bank and Draghi will probably explain the current slowdown of economic growth as a temporary phenomenon, leaving hope for a reversal of economic growth.
In general, assessing the likely outcome of the meeting, we believe that they will most likely put pressure on the euro but it will seem to be for the short-term, since the entire probable negative factors have already been taken into account in quotes. The market will consider the outlook for the euro to a more remote period.
Today, apart from the ECB meeting and the speeches of its president, attention should be focused on the data on basic orders for durable goods in the US, as well as their volume. It is expected that these indicators will decrease, which may locally slow the growth of the dollar. However, if the figures are still higher than forecasted, then we can expect the strengthening of the dollar.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair remains under pressure on the eve of the final meeting of the ECB and the statements of its president, Mario Draghi. The US dollar suspended the upward trend not only on the wave of waiting for news from the ECB, but also on Friday's publication of figures on US GDP. We expect that a break at the level of 1.2155 could cause the pair to fall to 1.2080.
The USDJPY pair continues its vertical growth on the wave of the outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank of Japan. Its growth can resume if the data published today from the US will be positive. The price will overcome the level of 109.45. On this wave, the price may jump to 110.00.
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