14.05.201808:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Investors are waiting for the signing of the NAFTA agreement

Dlouhodobá prognóza

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EUR/USD

The last day of the last week passed in a calm environment - investors were waiting for the formation of the Italian interim government, but they did not wait until this morning.The only thing able to agree the party leaders, is the refusal to go for Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio ( "5-Star"), Matteo Salvini ( "Northern League"), Silvio Berlusconi ( "Forza Italia"). The consumer price index in Spain in April fell from 1.2% y/y to 1.1% y/y, and in the first half of the day the euro was declining. Later in the day, mixed indicators on inflation in the US were released and the euro slightly increased on profit-taking at the end of the week. Import prices in the US declined from 3.6% y/y to 3.3% y/y, export prices increased to 3.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the preliminary assessment for May remained at the previous level of 98.8 points. The sub index of inflationary expectations in the structure of consumer confidence rose from 2.7% to 2.8%. The stock market added 0.17%, oil fell by 1.25%. Yields on US government bonds have not changed significantly (by 10-year-old 2.97%).

Today, no European nor American economic data are scheduled for publication. Officials of the ECB, Yves Mersch, Sabine Lautenschleger, Peter Praet, Benoit Coeure, will speak during the day. The themes of their speeches have not been announced, which suggests that they are not significant. Also, without the announced topic, a member of the Fed, James Bullard, will make a speech.

Apparently, today will also pass in peace - the Italian parliamentary factions continue negotiations, President Mattarella is tired of looking at this process and is preparing to form a technical government with the appointment of a date for re-elections. But even more interest of investors is caused by the new agreement of NAFTA, which should be signed by all parties until Thursday inclusive. If the procedure goes well, the dollar will certainly get stronger, if Mexico and Canada can sabotage the "unprofitable" contract for themselves, as they have already submitted promises, then the dollar will weaken - the euro will go up.

We are waiting for news from Italy and the US and, as a result, a lateral trend for the euro in the range of 1.1935-1.1980.

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