13.12.201809:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Brexit: Theresa May held in the lead and will continue to work on Brexit. Italy is ready to reduce the budget deficit

Theresa May remained the leader of the Conservative Party of Great Britain in a vote of the no-confidence vote yesterday. Let me remind you that 48 representatives of the Conservative Party sent letters of no confidence to a special committee, after which a process was launched leading to a vote of no confidence in British Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, as it became known, the British conservative parliamentarians did not render a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May, which led to an increase in the British pound, whose upward potential is still limited due to the risk of disordered Brexit.

May's small victory will now allow her to quietly go to the planned meeting in Ireland, where she will continue to discuss issues related to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Let me remind you that this particular problem does not allow approval of the Brexit agreement, which was recently submitted by European leaders to the UK Parliament.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, the pound rose significantly from a minimum of 1.2480 to a maximum of 1.2680. At the moment, a breakthrough of intermediate resistance in the 1.2630 area will lead to the formation of a new upward wave in the trading instrument, which will allow us to count on new highs in the areas of 1.2720 and 1.2790.

In the meantime, good news for investors came from Italy. Yesterday, it became known that the authorities plan to reduce the target level of the budget deficit, which is to avoid disagreements with the European Commission and the introduction of disciplinary peace from the European Union. According to Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Italy will reduce the target budget deficit next year. According to him, the budget deficit of Italy in 2019 will now have to be 2.04% of GDP against 2.4% earlier. However, such news is unlikely to force the European Commission to "loosen its grip", which requires the Italian authorities to return the budget deficit to the acceptable range. On the other hand, this will allow Italy and the EU to resume negotiations on this issue in a softer form.

As for the fundamental data, yesterday's report on inflation in the United States put pressure on the US dollar, as the decline in oil prices led to a lack of inflationary pressure.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, CPI in November of this year remained unchanged after rising 0.3% in October. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.2% in November, as it did in October. Economists had forecast that the overall index would remain unchanged in November, while the base index would grow by 0.2%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, both core and general inflation rose by 2.2%, which also coincided with the forecast of economists.

The report indicates that the fall in energy prices in November was 2.2% compared with October and resulted in no change in the inflation background.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / /USD currency pair, the further upward potential is limited by the intermediate resistance of 1.1380, the breakthrough of which will lead to a new wave of growth of the trading instrument with the update of last week's highs in the area of 1.1400 and 1.1430.

Data on commercial reserves of crude oil in the United States did not lead to a strong increase in oil quotations, as they were lower than expected.

According to the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, oil reserves during the reporting week fell by 1.2 million barrels to 442 million barrels, while analysts had expected reserves to decrease by 2.8 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, to 228.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks decreased by 1.5 million barrels, to 121.1 million barrels. The utilization of refining capacity decreased by 0.4 percentage points, to 95.1%.