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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 91p - 63p - 92p - 94p - 72p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 82p (78p).
The EUR/USD currency pair continues trading near the critical Kijun-sen line on Thursday, December 13. This morning it became known that members of the Conservative party of Great Britain did not support the vote of no confidence in Theresa May, which was initiated by 48 politicians. However, as noted, the number of party members who were ready to support the vote, increased to about 100-120 people. This means that the number of politicians willing to support Theresa May's Brexit bill is declining in any case, both among members of the same party and among the opposition. This is understood by May, so it is in her interest to push the vote in Parliament as late as possible, and the resulting time to spend on trying to win over as many deputies as possible. Today we are waiting for the publication of the key and deposit rates of the ECB, as well as a press conference on monetary policy. It is expected that the complete curtailment of the quantitative easing program will be announced. If Mario Draghi begins to hint at a possible extension or return to it in the future, it can create new pressure on the European currency. If there are no surprises, in the second half of the day the euro will have good chances for a new strengthening. However, given the nature of the pair's movement in recent weeks, it will be very difficult for the instrument to go above the level of 1.1440. Still, for a more serious growth, the pair needs strong fundamental reasons, which are still few. The fact that the QE program should be curtailed at the end of the year, was known in the summer...
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust against the "dead cross". It is recommended to return to short positions not earlier than fixing the price below the Ichimoku cloud and, preferably, the level of 1.1328. The targets in this case will be the levels of 1.1297 and 1.1264.
Buy orders can be considered after a confident overcoming of the critical line. Then the pair will have a good chance of growth with the target resistance level of 1.1440, which has already been worked out.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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