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On Tuesday, speculators against economic data continued to buy back the euro. For the euro area, the data came out worse, but for the United States better; Germany's Ifo business sentiment index for the current month decreased from 102.0 to 101.0, and the number of new housing starts in the USA increased from 1.22 million to 1.26 million in November.
What are the speculators waiting for? They are probably waiting for hints from the Fed to slow down the rate of rate hikes. On the one hand, this is obvious since investors are laying no more than 2 increases in the coming year. They agree on one increase, which is even more profitable since the stock market is already hard to sustain such a pace. However, we must also take into account that the slowdown is also associated with a general weakening of the global economy. Trump's trade wars are basically that. Also, the opposite effect is possible, which is the strengthening of the dollar against the background of the global recession as the withdrawal of investors into a strong asset for a long period of latent recession. It turns out that in the long run, the dollar will strengthen in the long term under the current US policy regardless of the processes taking place in the global economy.
As a result, we are waiting for a decline in the euro to 1.1170 and 1.1080, but before that increased emotional volatility may raise the euro to 1.1460 (MACD line on a daily basis) and, possibly to 1.1621, which was the maximum from October 16. Such a scenario is indicated to us by the output of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator above the upper boundary of the wedge on the daily chart but there can be a fall at once. Even this oscillator line will return to the wedge and the day will close inside the wedge.
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