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The Japanese yen may significantly increase in price in tandem with the US dollar in the coming months. Local financiers are predicting a mark of $ 100.In their forecasts, they referred to various factors such as the cooling of the global economy, tensions between the US and China, as well as the forced inaction of the Bank of Japan.
As the former executive director of the regulator, Kazuo Momma noted in an interview with Bloomberg TV that this course is still acceptable for the Central Bank, which in general cannot affect the current situation even if the yen continues to climb and a deep recession begins in the country's economy.
Direct interventions in the foreign exchange market will not help either; besides, trading partners will not understand. The market will start to panic, there will be a threat of economic collapse. This was already the case during the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
Still, the Central Bank has several ways to deal with the recession, although there is little choice. The regulator's arsenal was exhausted in six years of extraordinary stimulus which weakened the financial system and broke the structure of markets as side effects.
There are no "political instruments with a convincing risk-benefit ratio," says Momma.
It is difficult to say whether there will be a recession or not, but Japan's difficult times are secured, the official said. In the first half of the year, volatility in the markets will remain. The Central Bank is likely to be forced at the next meeting on January 22-23 to reduce quarterly growth and inflation forecasts.
As for inflation, Japan has not advanced a single step towards 2 percent. Even 1% for the country is not yet available if we remove the prices for food and energy from the calculations.
Last week, the yen soared to peak levels in nine months, as investors still consider it a safe haven asset in difficult times.
It is worth noting that in recent years, it was the weak yen and growing global demand that kept Japan's export-oriented economy afloat.
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