18.01.201915:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR and GBP. The problems in the UK economy is increasing. Euro buyers disappointed with statistics

The euro remained traded in a narrow side channel paired with the US dollar, but held its position after the release of the next weak fundamental statistics for the eurozone.

The reduction in the positive balance of the current account of the eurozone's balance of payments in November 2018 again indicates that the eurozone economy is slowing again by the end of the year and is unlikely to show good growth rates in early 2019. The sharp decline compared with October and the level of 2017 is bad news for the European Central Bank, which recently more and more often speaks not about raising interest rates, but about the need to further stimulate the economy.

Important is the fact that, in the main, a reduction in the positive balance of payments was caused by a reduction in trade in goods due to an increase in imports.

If we add to all the data for this week the likelihood of a new trade war between the US and the EU, the prospects for the European currency at the beginning of this year do not seem so rosy as before.

According to the report of the European regulator, the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone in November 2018 amounted to 20 billion euros against 27 billion euros in October. Compared with November 2017, the decline is impressive, since at that time the surplus was 35 billion euros. The surplus of trade in goods in November fell to 18 billion euros from 31 billion euros in November 2017.

Weak data for the euro area all week does not allow euro buyers to form a larger upward correction, and, ultimately, everything could end in another wave of falling risky assets.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the bears are trying to resume the downward movement in the market after the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to return to the game. A break of 1.1375 may lead to a larger decrease in risky assets with the renewal of lows around 1.1340 and 1.1310. In the case of another false breakdown in the area of 1.1375, bulls can willingly return, which will lead to a powerful upward impulse with a test and a breakthrough of the intermediate resistance 1.1415 and the main goal of updating the maximum of 1.1450.

The British pound remained under pressure and corrected after yesterday's growth, based more on expectations than on facts.

Weak data on retail sales in the UK once again indicated a slowdown in economic growth at the end of 2018. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics ONS, retail sales in the UK in December 2018 decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous month. This is another confirmation that the growth momentum of the UK economy is fading. Given the situation with the EU and Brexit, it is unlikely that in the near future it will be possible to expect a change in the situation, as consumer confidence decreases, as do their expenses.