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Fundamental data released on the UK economy in the first half of the day helped the buyers of the British pound, but a more powerful upward momentum was not formed due to the lack of a clear guideline with a further agreement on Brexit. Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that Brexit talks would be held without delay, reiterating that there would be no second referendum on this issue.
Good data on wage growth suggests a future increase in costs and growth in retail sales, which will surely support the UK economy.
According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, the number of employed citizens in the period from September to November 2018 increased by 141,000 compared with the previous three-month period. But the total number of unemployed increased by only 8,000 compared with the previous three-month period. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%.
As I noted above, wage growth was 3.4% compared with the same period last year, while economists expected an increase of only 3.3%. The report also noted that the growth rate of wages exceeded the growth rate of prices, while real wages increased by 1.2%.
Today, a report was also published by the National Bureau of Statistics on the net borrowings of the UK public sector, which in December 2018 were at the level of 3 billion British pounds against 2.7 billion pounds in December 2017.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the further growth prospects will depend on the level of 1.2890. If buyers manifest themselves in this range, you can count on a breakthrough of the maximum of 1.2950 with a test of the monthly resistance level of 1.3000.
The European currency continued to trade around the lows of the month, while data from the ZEW Research Institute failed to return to the buyers market.
The poor fundamental data, which has recently been published in the German economy, had a negative impact on the leading report on economic conditions and expectations in Germany.
According to the report, the current conditions index in Germany in January of this year fell to 27.6 points against 45.3 points in December, while the index of economic expectations in Germany in January, on the contrary, rose slightly to -15.0 points against -17, 5 points in December.
A report by the European Central Bank was published today, according to which, in the 4th quarter of 2018, eurozone banks left their policy of approving loans for companies and households unchanged.
From this, we can conclude that at the beginning of 2019 the situation with lending will not change, which will allow us to count on further growth of the economy since it strongly depends on the availability of financing, which is provided from credit resources. The report indicates that representatives of 147 banks surveyed by the ECB expect only a slight tightening of credit conditions in the corporate sector of the eurozone in the 1st quarter of 2019.
As for the technical picture of the currency pair EUR / USD, a breakthrough of the support level of 1.1345 may lead to the formation of a new wave of falling risky assets, reaching 1.1310 and 1.1270 lows.
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