19.02.201915:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: The report from the ZEW Research Center and Eurozone surplus let Euro buyers down

Eurozone data in the first half of the day once again limited the upward potential in euros, which was observed at the beginning of the week. Now, bulls, without updating the larger support levels and building a new upward price channel, are unlikely to easily break through this week's high near 1.1330 and catch at 1.1370 and 1.1440 highs.

The euro began to decline after the report that the surplus of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone in December 2018 continued to decline rapidly. This is due primarily to trade sanctions and the weakening of exports.

According to the data of the European Central Bank, the positive balance of the current account of the euro zone's balance of payments in December amounted to 16 billion euros against 23 billion euros in November 2018. Let me remind you that back in December 2017, the surplus was 29 billion euros.

German data also did not make investors happy. As indicated in the report, the outpacing index of economic expectations for February of this year in Germany rose only slightly after a decline in January. A serious drop was observed in the current conditions index.

According to a report by the ZEW Research Center, the index of economic expectations in Germany in February 2019 rose to -13.4 points from -15.0 points in January, while economists predicted that in February the index would be -14.0 points.

The index of current conditions in Germany in February fell to 15.0 points from 27.6 points in January.

The center noted that there are currently no signs of a quick recovery in the unstable German economy, as evidenced by the slowdown in economic growth last year.

Let me remind you that last week a report from Deutsche Bank was published, in which economists expected that Germany's GDP would grow by only 0.5% this year.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bearish scenario, which I drew attention in my morning review, began to work out. At the moment, a breakthrough of the level of 1.1290 may lead to a larger decrease in the trading instrument to the area of the lows of last week, up to the update of the support of 1.1235. Buyers of risky assets at the end of today, of course, it is desirable to return to the resistance level of 1.1290, which will build a new lower limit of the upward price channel.

The British pound remained "pushed" in one place after the release of the report, in which, on the one hand, at the end of 2018, the number of jobs in the UK continued to increase, while, on the other hand, wage growth remained unchanged and turned out to be worse than expected economists.

Given the continuing nervousness regarding the country's future withdrawal from the EU, this report as a whole can be called good.

According to the data, the number of unemployed in the UK from October to December 2018 decreased by 14,000 compared with the previous period. The unemployment rate was 4%.

As noted above, the quarterly wage growth rate remained unchanged, at 3.4%, while economists had expected growth of 3.5%. Real wages increased by 1.2%.