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The future of the single European currency remains extremely uncertain. Slowing economic growth in the eurozone against the background of general uncertainty, which has not disappeared anywhere from the markets but only increases more and more. It may cause the ECB to resume asset buying under the name of quantitative easing (QE).
On Thursday, ECB Vice President Luis de Gindos at a Reuters Breakingviews event in New York said that "we closed our quantitative easing program at the end of last year, but ... this is something that we can use again if necessary." His words indicate that the regulator is stymied by the lack of inflation, (currently at the level of 1.4%) and weak GDP growth, which fell to 1.1% on an annualized basis, according to final data for the fourth quarter.
In fact, we can say that the ECB will have to resort to either direct purchases of government bonds, as well as corporate bonds in an attempt to stimulate an increase in inflationary pressure and economic growth in the region.
In our opinion, it will be extremely difficult for the bank to solve this problem, since in recent months the risks of dumping the global economy into recession with subsequent crisis phenomena have noticeably increased and without external demand for European products on the world market, it will be extremely difficult for the eurozone economy to recover.
Given this, we believe that the euro currency will have an "unenviable" future. Most likely, it will continue to remain under pressure, adjusting the US dollar upwards from time to time. It is likely that in the future the main currency pair will test the level of 1.0000, as in the conditions of the impending new economic crisis. The demand for dollar assets and the American currency itself will only grow as an asset.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure in the wake of the risk that the ECB will resume the euro-zone economic stimulus programs and the pair may rebound to 1.1165. If this happens, we consider it possible to sell it from this mark, as well as from the level of 1.1145, if it does not cross it with the local target of 1.1100.
The GBP/USD pair can also be adjusted upwards to 1.2925. We consider it necessary to sell it from this mark or after crossing the level of 1.2880 with the local target of 1.12800.
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