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Further prospects for the single currency largely depend on the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. The EUR/USD pair reacted weakly to Donald Trump's Sunday "tweets", the jump of the Japanese yen turned out to be moderate. It is possible that investors continue to believe in the deal between Beijing and Washington. As for the introduction of tariffs, this news brought down excessive optimism and returned traders to a balanced state.
The US-China trade relationship plays an important role in the global economy, and the completion of negotiations (regardless of their outcome) will increase the volatility of the main pair. Failure will result in the escalation of a trade war. If some countries can benefit from it, Europe is definitely not included.
Meanwhile, the news about the deal will support the growth of risk appetite and will be an optimistic signal for the euro bloc economy. This situation is helping to narrow the growing gap between the United States and Europe in the coming quarters. The EUR/USD pair may reach $1.16 in the third quarter and $1.18 in the fourth quarter.
As for the short-term outlook, on Thursday, the quotes of the pair rose and reached the level of $1.1213 after the publication of a block of statistics from the US with negative coloration, which cast a shadow on the expected inflation rate today. However, such a rapid reaction to the data of secondary importance indicates an excessive reaction of the markets after a long flat. Currently, quotes are in a reversal range for a subsequent decline, but as Donald Trump said, no one knows how today will.
About the pound
Since the beginning of the week, the GBP/USD pair has lost more than a hundred points. Optimism about concluding an agreement Brexit almost dried up. British politicians are still far from compromise, the country's Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to develop a new version of the agreement. She also openly plans her own resignation as a last resort. At the EU summit, at which representatives of England were not present, the question of Brexit was not discussed.
On Friday, a large block of macroeconomic statistics was published in the UK, including the first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter. However, the expected surge in volatility did not happen, market participants are still deprived of arguments in favor of buying a pound. The pair GBP/USD moves around $1.30. The risk of resumption of the downward movement increases. At the same time, only a breakthrough and subsequent fixation of quotations under the level of $1.2970 will make it possible to seriously consider the downward trend.
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