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Of course, the dollar is clearly overbought and its weakening against the background of unexpectedly poor statistics on home sales in the secondary market, which decreased by 0.4% instead of growing by 2.7% should not be surprising. But not so much. Also, not for such a short time because almost immediately everything returned to where it began. Thus, the reason for the unexpected fall and almost instantly followed by the strengthening of the dollar is clearly not in the statistics on the sale of dilapidated huts in the United States of America.
And oddly enough, the reason lies in the next round of palace intrigues that swept the United Kingdom. It all started with rumors that Theresa May is rushing to the House of Commons to present a new version of the "divorce" agreement with the European Union. The very idea that this whole epic is finally coming to a denouement, and a good one, began to push the pound up. Well, he has already pulled the single European currency but rumors, such rumors. Theresa May has not yet completed her historic speech as the pound rushed down and pulls again the single European currency. She did not demonstrate any agreement, stating only that the option had already been prepared and agreed by the Cabinet of Ministers. In fact, for most of his speech, the Prime Minister urged parliamentarians to accept the version of the agreement that she would put to the vote in early June, although, none of the parliamentarians have yet to see the agreement itself. Hence, everyone could see that Theresa May was also going to face a cruel defeat in the House of Commons for the fourth time, especially since right away the representatives of the Conservative Party declared that they would vote against the agreement.
Moreover, they are much more concerned with the issue of Theresa May's resignation, on which they insist. Of course, Boris Johnson did not stand aside because he had already become prime minister in his thoughts. He said that there is nothing to pull the cat by the tail and it is time to move out of the European hostel and without the "divorce" agreement. Theresa May herself once again vowed with all she could that she would resign immediately after voting on the deal with the European Union. But in any case, it is obvious to all that Great Britain will leave the European Union without any agreement since both the conservatives and the laborists declared their intention to vote against what Theresa May will provide them. Laborites are generally handsome as they intend to disclaim all responsibility for the consequences, and if earlier they insisted on a repeated referendum. Now, they offer to submit the divorce agreement to the referendum. So to say, people decide whether to accept it or not. Accordingly, Laborites can declare with a clear conscience that it is not they who are to blame for the worsening economic situation in the United Kingdom in the future like it was the will of the people. True, it is not clear why then this parliament is needed and what people's deputies are doing there. Therefore, all of these clearly leads everyone to bewilderment. There is no clarity about what will happen tomorrow and oh how frightening is this for investors.
Today, the pound may get an opportunity for more sustainable growth as inflation can accelerate from 1.9% to 2.2%, which will lift investors' mood a little. Also, do not forget that the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations are being published today. The intrigue lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve outlined its plans for the pace last year and timing of raising the refinancing rate. The question is, why are you saying this if the plans include raising this rate itself? Apparently, the word about raising or lowering the refinancing rate can generally be removed from the content of the protocol and the Federal Reserve can be understood since the situation has since somewhat deteriorated, which was largely due to the apparent increase in tensions between the United States and China. In a situation where the Celestial Empire raises customs duties on goods from the United States, raising the refinancing rate is a rather strange decision in response to similar steps by the White House. But investors have long been laid in the value of the dollar with all the previously planned steps to tighten monetary policy.
It turns out that the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Operations in the open market can seriously disappoint investors and they will temporarily forget about the damned Brexit, remembering the urgent affairs. Hence, the single European currency has good chances to grow to 1.1175.
The pound will grow a little more fun as it continues to decline due to complete confusion with Brexit. However, inflation data will affect investor sentiment. Well, the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations will put everything in its place. Thus, the pound has good chances to grow to 1.2750.
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