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The minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, promulgated on Wednesday, as we expected showed the desire of the American regulator to continue to take a wait-and-see attitude towards monetary policy.
Recall that following the meeting, the Fed decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged and announced that it will closely monitor the dynamics of inflation, trends in the US economy and in the external events, which implies the situation with the negotiation process between China and the United States on trade.
Markets reacted moderately to the protocol content. The general sentiment on them remains weakly negative, as investors understand that the lack of reaching a new trade agreement between the Americans and the Chinese is a key factor for the global economy, as well as an increased pressure from the United States that joined Japan and the United Kingdom (Chinese manufacturing giant Huawei) increases the gap in reaching agreements.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar continued to strengthen against major currencies with the exception of the Japanese and Swiss currencies. The yields on US government Treasury bonds also dropped following Wednesday, indicating a continuation of the dynamics of investor's risk aversion. As we see it, this state of affairs will continue until there is at least some, albeit intermediate, trade agreement between Beijing and Washington. But so far, it seems that it is not necessary to count on it. We generally get the impression that the American president will decide to correct his position and take a real step towards reaching an agreement in the second half of this year, or more precisely, in order to have a strong trump by the start of a new election campaign in America.
If indeed our scenario turns out to be true, then the current state of affairs on world markets in general and on the foreign exchange market will be preserved, in particular. The rate of the US dollar may be generally strengthened further in relation to the major currencies. The currencies of EM countries will remain under pressure, as capital will continue to leave emerging markets.
As for the situation in the short term, we are waiting for dollar purchases on any noticeable corrections that may be inspired by rumors, speculation, and local positive news, as well as Donald Trump's statements regarding the negotiation process between China and the United States.
Forecast of the day:
The AUD/USD pair consolidates above the level of 0.6865. It may continue falling to 0.6800 if she falls below this mark. The lack of trade agreements between the United States and China is negative for the pair.
The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure in the wake of the high probability of Theresa May leaving the post of British Prime Minister. A decline in the pair below 1.2620 may lead to a fall in prices to 1.2575 and then to 1.2550.
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