06.06.201909:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: The probability of a return to the recession of the key world economies is gradually increasing, and there are a number of confirmations

The euro fell against the US dollar after the release of a good report on the growth of services in the US, despite a slight increase after a weak report from ADP.

According to the Institute of Supply Management, the growth of activity in the US service sector accelerated in May this year. This indicates a good state of the American economy, despite the fact of a slowdown in global GDP growth and increased foreign trade tensions.

Thus, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector in the US in May rose to 56.9 points from 55.5 in April. Let me remind you that values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

As noted above, data on the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP put pressure on the US dollar.

According to the report of Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs in the private sector grew by only 27,000 in May, while economists had expected the number of jobs to grow by 173,000. A sharp loss of jobs in the amount of 52,000 occurred in the field of small business. Large companies were able to bridge the gap and created 68,000 jobs.

Yesterday's speech by the representative of the Federal Reserve System Lael Brainard only strengthened the belief of traders that the Committee can seriously think about the option of lowering interest rates in the near future.

During the interview, Lael said that the problems in international trade are a downward risk for the economy, and the Fed can adjust policies to support economic growth. Brainard also believes that the Fed needs to be more open about the use of monetary policy instruments, which will only benefit the financial markets.

Yesterday, an interesting study was published, which considered the dynamics of gold growth along with a sharp decline in oil prices. This sharp divergence has been observed only three times in all of the years, most recently in 2008 during the crisis. It is assumed that the current divergence and sharp demand for gold, which rose to a maximum of 12 months, indicates an approaching recession in the financial markets, which only increases the spreads of corporate bond yields. The slowdown in the global economy and trade conflicts will put even more pressure on the economy, and the Fed's recent hints of strong monetary easing reinforce the sense of an approaching crisis in the capital market.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further short-term movement will depend on today's data on the eurozone GDP, as well as on how the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi will react to the latest weak data on inflation and the economy. A number of negative statements may push the euro further down into the support area of 1.1200 and 1.1160. If Draghi's statements are full of optimism, it is unlikely that the euro will receive short-term support, which will allow the trading instrument to return to the area of monthly highs of 1.1300.