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Obchodní podmínky
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EUR / USD
Yesterday's trading day for the EUR / USD pair ended with a decrease of 30 basis points. And from the maximum of the day, the instrument lost about 90 bp. Thus, such a decrease can be interpreted as the completion of the construction of the ascending wave. Based on the current wave marking, wave 4 can be completed. If this is true, then from the current positions the pair will continue to decline within wave 5 with targets located under the 11th figure. The news background for the couple has recently been positive due to a series of negative reports from America. However, today, the press conference of Mario Draghi is dedicated to the results of the ECB meeting. It can paint the news background again in a negative color. The fact is that the markets do not expect optimistic rhetoric from Draghi. On the contrary, the chairman of the European regulator will most likely talk about the need to stimulate the economy of the European Union regarding the increased global economic risks, the program of supporting the banking sector and weak inflation. All this can force traders to proceed again to sales of the euro-dollar pair.
Purchase goals:
1.1278 - 50.0% Fibonacci
1.1317 - 61.8% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro / dollar pair has presumably completed the construction of the correctional wave 4. Thus, now, I recommend to start selling the pair with targets that are under the 11 figure in terms of building wave 5 of the downward trend segment. I recommend placing limit orders above the peak of the supposed wave 4.
GBP / USD
On June 5, the GBP / USD pair lost a few dozen base points, while failing to update the previous peak, which is now interpreted as wave 2, in s. In any case, if the market fails to update the peak of May 27, the chances of resuming the construction of a downward trend section will increase multiple times. At the same time, in order to identify the readiness of traders to new sales, it is also necessary to wait for a successful attempt to break through the minimum of May 31. Over the past trading day, the news from the UK has come a little. The PMI index for the services sector slightly exceeded forecasts, and the composite PMI index was slightly worse than forecasts. Greater interest in the markets caused similar US indices. And the PMI index for the services sector ISM returned to the game of bears. It's too early to say that the bulls were again defeated in their attempts to start building the upward trend, but this is precisely what is going on. Speech by Bank of England CEO Mark Carney today may further weaken the position of the bulls, if the context of the speech is negative and "dovish." Mark Carney's talk starts at 09:00 UTC+00.
Sales targets:
1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci
1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument suggests a resumption of the instrument decline within the estimated wave c. Thus, now, I recommend waiting for a breakout level of 200.0% and selling the pound with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2360 and 1.2176, which corresponds to 261.8% and 323.6% in Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 200.0% could lead to the completion of the construction of the downward trend, but this hypothesis has not yet been confirmed.
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