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The weak report on US employment for May and the associated increase in the probability of lowering the federal funds rate by 50 bp in 2019 to more than 80% allowed "bulls" on XAU/USD to return quotes to the area of 13-month highs. The USD index, on the contrary, fell to its lowest level since the end of March, which once again convinces: the main reason for the reluctance of gold to strengthen this year was a strong dollar. Even against the backdrop of the decline in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to the minimum levels since the fall of 2017, gold was in no hurry to go North. It needed a signal, and it was the American currency.
Dynamics of gold and US dollar
If in 2018, due to the strength of the US economy, the trade war did not confuse the "bulls" on the USD and S&P 500 index, then in 2019 the situation changed radically. The States said goodbye to both the fiscal stimulus and the Fed's monetary restriction. As a result, the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing leads to an increase in the volatility of the stock market and to an increase in the likelihood of weakening the monetary policy of the Fed. Both factors create a favorable wind for the precious metal, which it uses in full. Moreover, the physical asset market is doing well: China is increasing its gold reserves for the 6th month in a row, bringing the figure to 1916 tons (+15.6 tons in May), and the reserves of specialized exchange-traded funds after stabilization in late spring went up in June (+2% or 1.4 million ounces since the beginning of the month, according to BMO Capital Markets).
Looking at the confident XAU/USD rally, banks and investment companies do not skimp on "bullish" forecasts. According to INTL FCStone, the precious metal will reach the psychologically important level of $1400 in 2019, as investors will increase its share in portfolios due to the uncertainty of the fate of the major world currencies. TD Securities also speaks to the level of $1,400 an ounce, but already in 2020. The company believes that the States are close to the end of the economic cycle, and the Fed will be forced to reduce rates. Though not as soon as the urgent market expects. The forecast is $1320-1375 in the second half of 2019 followed by a rise to an average price of $1425 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Gold is supported by criticism of the Fed from Donald Trump and his ultimatum to China: if Xi Jinping does not appear at the G20 meeting, the States will impose duties on all imports of China. Beijing promises to respond harshly, which is regarded as an escalation of the conflict and contributes to the correction of the world stock indices. At the same time, the owner of the White House mercilessly scolds Jerome Powell and his team, which with the help of raising rates and the economy, oxygen is blocked, and create an unfavorable playing field for the war between the US and China.
Technically, after the first target on the pattern "Wolfe Waves" near the $1350 per ounce, followed by a natural rollback. "Bulls" on gold intend to implement the following target for $1360-1365. It is located on line 1-4. In general, while the precious metal is above $1,310 per ounce, the situation is controlled by buyers.
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