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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -170.6140
Last week ended with a strong but expected strengthening of the US dollar, and unexpectedly positive macroeconomic statistics from overseas. As we have repeatedly said, the last two weeks for the US currency were absolutely failure due to weak responses from the States. It is because of them that the euro currency managed to strengthen more or less seriously. However, at the end of last week, traders began to actively buy the dollar again, even more active than their macroeconomic reports suggested. US industrial production rose to 0.4%, while retail sales showed a minimum excess of the forecast value. Given the fact that these are not the most important indicators and they are not distinguished by any giant ahead of forecasts, we believe that such a strong growth of the dollar is simply matured, and both reports from America on Friday became a necessary impetus for the bears. As for the euro currency, there are no strong fundamental factors supporting its growth. In recent weeks, it has been "fashionable" to discuss the possible weakening of the Fed's monetary policy. Many experts even believed that the dollar's time is over, as America has embarked on the path of lowering the key rate. We are told that the ECB is similarly trying to reduce the rate, but not with values of 2.5%, and 0.0%. Therefore, the economic situation in the European Union remains much worse than in the US. In technical terms, the euro/dollar overcame the moving average and went much lower than it. Bears took over the initiative in the market again.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1200
S2 – 1.1169
S3 – 1.1139
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1230
R2 – 1.1261
R3 – 1.1292
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line. Thus, sales of the euro/dollar pair with targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169 are now recommended before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns to the top.
It is recommended to buy the euro after the bulls return the initiative to their hands and secure the pair above the moving average line, with the first targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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