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According to a number of experts, the price of black gold may pleasantly surprise with active growth in the second half of 2019. Analysts polled by Bloomberg rated the outlook for oil as positive.
On Monday, July 8, the cost of major grades of raw materials showed a positive trend. Brent crude rose by 0.67% to $64.66 per barrel while lightweight WTI rose in price by 0.87% to $58.01 per barrel. Since the beginning of 2019, Brent and WTI have risen in price by 20.11% and 27.68%, respectively.
According to the calculations of commodity market analysts from RBC Capital Markets, the average price of Brent will be $ 69.50 per barrel, and the price of WTI will be $63 per barrel in the second half of this year. Such forecasts are due to many geopolitical reasons. Experts are confident that attempts to launch an upward oil rally will collapse until the demand for refined products grows. RBC Capital Markets believe that the current year will be a time to find a balance in the black gold market, while attempts to find a balance indicate weak demand for oil.
Analysts at the largest bank at Commonwealth Bank of Australia believe that "oil" pessimism about demand is greatly exaggerated. Experts are confident that in the second half of 2019, Brent crude will be in the acceptable range - between $ 65 and $ 70 per barrel.
Currently, the oil bulls are counting on the positive dynamics of oil prices after the disappointing investors restarting trade negotiations between the US and China and growing concerns about the conflict between the United States and Iran. Recall that last week, Brent and WTI oil prices declined due to fears about demand despite OPEC plans to reduce oil production by March 2020.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, the black gold market in 2020 will find it difficult to find a balance between supply and demand. The IEA believes that the growth in world oil demand by 1.4 million barrels per day will not be able to overtake supply, which will increase even faster by 2.3 million barrels per day. The agency is confident that OPEC countries produce more oil than what will be needed next year.
Most experts consider the growth of shale oil production in the United States to be one of the important factors for the global black gold market but it will be key in 2020. Experts predict a fall in oil prices next year precisely because of the increase in the production of shale oil. As a result, Brent quotes will be under pressure but they will be able to withstand, experts say.
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