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For the second day in a row, what is happening in the market resembles a quiet hour. Silence and peace, which are not able to disturb either the speeches of a whole galaxy of representatives of the Federal Commission on open market operations, led by Jerome Powell himself, or a reduction of 49 thousand in the number of open vacancies. The reason for this lull lies in the fact that the market is waiting for the publication of data on inflation in the United States, as well as the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations and, of course, the subsequent speech of Jerome Powell in the United States Congress.
The responsibility to wake up the sleeping kids today is assigned to the UK, where data on industrial production will be published. At the moment, the British industry demonstrates a phenomenal growth of -1.0% (yes, it is "minus one percent"), and it is expected that today the decline will be replaced by an increase of 1.1%. This will clearly encourage market participants, who, although not confidently, will start selling portraits of dead American presidents gradually. In the evening, data on inventories in the wholesale warehouses in the United States will be known, which should increase again, and this time by 0.4%. It should be noted that the continuous growth of stocks, which has been lasting for more than a year, clearly indicates an increase in the risk of an overproduction crisis. Well, the day ends with the publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. In the content of this remarkable document, investors hope to find answers that aims to shed light on the plans of the Federal Reserve System regarding the refinancing rate. More precisely, everyone is interested to know the time when it will be reduced. And in general, whether it will be reduced or not.
By the way, precisely for this reason, today's performance of Jerome Powell in Congress will remain practically unheeded. The head of the Federal Reserve System will speak about the stress tests of major US banks. That is, if humanly, the topic of the report is devoted to the financial condition and well-being of banks. Monetary policy regulator will not be affected. And the congressmen will not ask about it, since the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations will be published in a few hours. Tomorrow, however, Jerome Powell will come back to Congress to complete his speech and answer questions from the audience. Therefore, the congressmen will have the opportunity to study the text of the protocol and focus on the most interesting places. Well, if they themselves hardly understand all this terminology and routine, then people from Wall Street will surely conduct explanations and conversations. Moreover, shortly before the second visit of Jerome Powell to the United States Congress, inflation data will be published, which is more understandable for the "ordinary people" who sit in the legislative assembly.
But all this will happen tomorrow, and today, investors will have to respond only to industrial production in the UK and wait for the publication of the text of the protocol of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. Taking into account how carefully and unobtrusively representatives of the Federal Reserve System are preparing everyone to change the direction of monetary policy, the most likely scenario is a gradual weakening of the dollar, which will intensify closer at night. The single European currency will gradually grow to 1.1250.
The potential growth of the pound is slightly higher due to the expected good data on industrial production, so that it could grow to 1.2525.
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