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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the correction level of 38.2% (1.1238), a turn in favor of the European currency and an increase to the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278). The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 38.2%. The report on industrial production in May in the European Union, which was released on Friday, showed an improvement of 0.9% m/m, but it still fell by 0.5% in annual terms. Thus, traders were unable to respond to this report with new euro purchases. In America, a report on the producer price index was released, according to which the increase was 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y. However, inflation in the US has already slowed to 1.6%, so the increase in the producer price index did not affect the US dollar. In general, both reports were not the most important. Today, unfortunately, there will be no reports with such a degree of importance. Thus, most likely, trading will be boring on Monday, activity is weak, and volatility is low. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of further growth towards the next correction level of 61.8% (1.1318).
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has fulfilled the growth to the correction level of 50.0% (1,1278). I recommend selling the pair with the target at 1.1238, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1278, if a new rebound from the level of 50.0% is executed. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.1318 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1278, if the closing is above 50.0%.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair continues a sluggish growth process in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661), after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator and a rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2437). No new data on the topic of Brexit in recent days, but in the UK, there was a scandal because of the publication of secret correspondence between the British ambassador to the US Kim Darroch and London, in which he shared his personal opinion about US President Donald Trump. It is easy to guess that these messages are full of unflattering characteristics of Donald Trump. Darroch calls Trump "incompetent," and the White House – "incapacitated." Also in this correspondence, there is a lot of information about the actions of the White House, personally Donald Trump in the period from 2017. In particular, information about why the States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as why Trump canceled the strike on Iran. The day after the publication of this information, Trump announced Darroch persona non grata, criticized Theresa May and hinted at the split in relations between the US and the UK. In turn, Theresa May, who is still prime minister, said that Darroch's correspondence does not reflect all of Britain's respect for the United States, but at the same time said that ambassadors have the right to give honest and assessment of politics or politicians. In general, this scandal can have a serious impact on relations between the two countries.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair returned to the correction level of 76.4% (1.2571). A new rebound from this Fibo level allows us to expect a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2506). The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator significantly increases the chances of the pair to fall again. Closing the quotes of the pound/dollar pair above the level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of 61.8% (1.2612).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.2506, with the stop-loss order over 1.2571. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2612, if the closing above the Fibo level is 76.4% and with the stop-loss order under 1.2571 (hourly chart).
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