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Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility close to the average daily 74 points, as a result of having a rollback in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the recent impulse movement led us to the values of 2017, where we felt a foothold near the support level of 1.2350 and, as a fact, went into the rollback stage. As written in the previous review, many traders entered short positions even after the breakdown of the value of 1.2500, and in the area of 1.2430 / 1.2400, they began to partially fix to regroup trade transactions against the background of a possible retracement. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the global downward trend remains in the market, trying to go into the correction phase after the initial pullback at a given time.
The information and news background of the past day had statistics on inflation in the UK, where, as expected, its level was 2.0%. For the United States, we have published data on the construction sector, but in here, we have a decline. The number of building permits issued in June decreased from 1,299M to 1,220M, with a forecast of 1,300M. The volume of construction of new homes also shows a decline from 1.265 to 1.253. Thus, against the general background of overbought dollar, we saw its weakening. Moving on to the information background, here, as was discussed in the previous review, there are worries about the divorce process between the United Kingdom & European Union. The new European Commission President for Ursula von der Leyen said that she was ready to revise the release date from October 31 to a later date if there are objective reasons. At the same time, there are no real concessions in the agreement plan, and the policy of actions will continue along the same lines as Jean-Claude Juncker. Now we recall the statement of Boris Johnson, who aims to withdraw from the EU on October 31, if he does not make concessions. Thus, once again, we have to hang on place.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in Britain, where it is expected to increase from 2.3% to 2.6%, which can certainly spur an oversold pound. In the afternoon, there will be data on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, where growth is expected from 209K to 216K.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that overheating of short positions has led to the formation of a corrective move, where the quotation is actively trying to recover. It is likely to assume that the tact of "Correction" will lead us to the area of values 1.2480-1.2490, which will serve as a regrouping of trading forces. The existing short positions are better covered for now, unless, of course, you have already closed them.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- Positions to buy are considered in the correction plan to 1.2480-1.2490.
- Positions for sale are considered in two versions: The first one, after the finish correction, where we will identify the optimal point to enter; The second option, below the value of 1.2400, if the current picture changes.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short term have changed to the ascending side due to the current correction. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term perspectives still maintain a downward interest, against the backdrop of a recent rally.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 46 points. It is likely to assume that volatility can still grow on the background of the structure of the correction.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.
Support areas: 1.2430; 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
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