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For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 57 points. As a result, the quote smoothly continued to decline. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the recent V-shaped correction led us to the level of the 1.2557 cluster, where, by regularity, the quotation felt resistance and moved into the recovery phase of the downward course..At the moment of the recovery of the downward movement, many traders began to merge into short positions from the value of 1.2500, which was and is the right tactic against the background of thickening clouds in the English currency. Considering the trading chart in general terms (day timeframe), we see that in global terms, the clock basis moves from "Correction" to "Impulse", which is a good sign in the formation of a downward trend.
The information and news background didn't have any solid statistics on the UK and the United States. The information background is literally charged with the current outcome of the elections in Britain, where the victory of Boris Johnson as the leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister of the country will be officially announced in the near future. So much "positive" news pulls the English currency into the debt hole, and this is just the beginning. After the performance in a position, the global staffing will take place, although many are ready to leave their posts. The incumbent foreign minister, Jeremy Hunt, already intends to dismiss, and the statements on the early exit of the country and the EU will begin to play with new colors. Naturally, against such a background, speculators became more active, since volatility is returning to our region, and large profits will return after it.
Today, the focus is on the election results that are scheduled for 10:45 Universal time. It will be fun if Boris Johnson loses, as in this case, the jump to the top is unreal. But this is just a dream, since, according to all data, the winner of the election will be Boris, and there is no way out of it. From a statistical point of view, there is only data on sales in the secondary housing market of the United States today, and there is an increase from 5.34M to 5.35M.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is very close to 1.2430. This is the very value that kept us for a long time until its breakdown on July 16. It is likely to assume that the downward mood will continue in the market, and there are a number of factors to this, as described above. Most traders have already climbed into short positions, but if we do not have deals, then we can consider fixing lower than 1.2430 for entry. The prospect is considered in the form of inertial descent to a local minimum of 1.2381. A deeper movement will be considered already after fixation lower than 1.2380, with the support of the information background.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- At the moment, positions to buy are not available, due to a massive descending interest.
- Positions for sale are already available, but if you did not have time to enter the value of 1.2500, then you can wait for a fix lower than 1.2430.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short, intraday and medium term perspective are concentrated in a downward plan, which is justified by the current market background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 23 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 45 points. It is likely to assume that due to the information background, volatility can increase, overcoming the average daily rate.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.
Support areas: 1.2430; 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
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