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According to the calculations of experts of the analytical company CIBC, market players can sell the Canadian dollar at the moment, the most effective currency in the Big Ten. At the beginning of this year, "Canadian" confidently led among other leading world currencies, and now its "bullish" trend is close to completion, analysts say.
The trading session on Monday, July 22, was quite successful for USD/CAD buyers. The pair not only recovered from the eight-month low of 1.30 but also strengthened above 1.31. CIBC experts recommend buying the US dollar against the Canadian currency, using a six-month call option on the USD/CAD pair with a strike at 1.3411. CIBC strategists also offer to sell the Canadian dollar against the Norwegian Krone with a target at 6.25 and stop-loss to limit the potential loss at 6.6350.
Experts explain the recent weakness of the Canadian dollar by the local strengthening of the US currency, as well as the release of a negative report on wholesale sales. Recall that in May this year, the volume of wholesale sales in Canada decreased by 1.8% after a five-month growth. The most significant decline was recorded in the sales of cars and components. This is the third macroeconomic release from Canada, which turned out to be worse than forecasts.
It is estimated that the deterioration of economic statistics and protectionist trade policy of the maple leaf country contribute to the completion of the trend of strengthening of the Canadian dollar. This year, the national currency of Canada has become the best among the competitors of the Big Ten. Since the beginning of the year, the Canadian dollar has risen by 4% against the US currency.
After the release of negative macroeconomic data, the probability of interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada in 2019 exceeded 50%. Previously, this figure was within 20%. Last week, the regulator kept the rate at 1.75%, without clarifying the situation regarding the easing of monetary policy in the future. However, experts do not doubt that the Canadian regulator will join the world central banks and will follow the path of reducing rates. In the current situation, analysts recommend not to leave the "long" positions on the USD/CAD pair.
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