12.09.201910:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for September 12. Focus of the day: ECB meeting and inflation in America

EUR / USD

Wednesday, September 11, ended for the pair EUR / USD with a decrease of 30 basis points. Thus, the current wave marking, which involves the construction of at least one more bearish wave, remains valid. The euro-dollar pair supposedly began to decline within the framework of wave 5, to 3. If this is true, then the decline will continue in the coming days with targets located under figure 9. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level indicated the completion of wave 4.

Fundamental component:

On the EUR / USD instrument, the decline has resumed. Markets are very seriously worried that the European Central Bank will decide to substantially soften its monetary policy today, and they began to get rid of the euro currency in advance. Thus, the news background for the instrument is now negative, and may become even more negative, since there are also a lot of economic reports that will affect the euro-dollar pair today. Starting from at least with industrial production in the eurozone in July.

In the previous month, the indicator lost as much as 2.6% y / y.

And 1.6% m / m. After such a strong decline, one could count on a small increase, at least in the monthly measurement. However, not all the main forecasts indicate a new decline in industrial production in the European Union by 1.3% y / y and 0.1% m / m, which is not surprising, given the weakest business activity in industry.

In addition, a report on inflation in the United States is released today.

Over the past 5 months, inflation in America has clearly been in good condition, only slightly below the target Fed level of 2.0%. In August 2019, this indicator is unlikely to change and will also be + 1.8% y / y. However, today, there are three potentially dangerous factors for the EUR / USD pair today: the ECB meeting, the EU industrial production, and US inflation. Each of them can lead to a new decrease in the euro currency, which will fully fit into the framework of the current wave picture.

Purchase goals:

1.1248 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0893 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.0807 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar continues to build the bearish wave 3 and completed the construction of the estimated internal wave 4 near the level of 1.1081. I recommend selling a pair with targets near the calculated levels of 1.0893 and 1.0807, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci, calculated on the construction of wave 5, to 3.

GBP / USD

The GBP / USD pair on September 11 literally lost several base points, which did not affect the current wave counting, which still involves the construction of a rising wave c. Interesting economic reports in recent days in the UK did not come out. Thus, the news background for the pound-dollar pair first shifted towards neutral, and then acquired a negative color a little later. Yesterday, at the request of Parliament, Boris Johnson revealed a "yellowhammer" document that describes the government's expected consequences of the tough Brexit. And there is very little positivity in this document. Possible problems with the supply of drugs, a shortage of certain goods, problems at customs on the English Channel, as well as riots are noted. The pound is still holding, but a successful attempt to break through the 38.2% level will indicate that the markets are ready for the instrument to fall.

Fundamental component:

Thursday's news background for GBP / USD may be neutral again. Only an inflation report can lead to increased market activity. However, inflation is unlikely to change in the United States. New data from the UK, and more precisely from the political sphere of Great Britain, can also cause a change in the course. The deputies won a court in Scotland, which recognized the illegality of Boris Johnson's actions to force the dissolution of parliament, but there is no decision on the invalidity of his decision.

Sales goals:

1.2016 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2401 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.2489 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The downward trend section is still considered completed. Thus, now, it is expected to continue the construction of the ascending wave with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2401 and 1.2489, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. I recommend buying pounds in small lots, as the wave of c may be completed in the near future.