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The United States has been leading for many decades, while the rest of the world has been led. US stock indices reacted mainly to internal statistics and the Federal Reserve's monetary rate, crises were born in the United States and spread to other places, and not vice versa. Due to the low proportion of exports to US GDP, they were protected from the negative impact of headwinds blowing from abroad. However, in recent years, much has changed. In 2015-2016, the Fed postponed the decision to raise interest rates due to a "fire" in the financial markets of China and Brexit. In 2019, the regulator is forced to soften monetary policy amid growing international risks. It is obvious that the trade wars unleashed by the White House are beginning to negatively affect the US economy, which contributes to the growth of EUR/USD.
Business activity in the US manufacturing sector fell in September to the lowest levels in the last 10 years, while private sector employment in the country showed the worst growth rate in the last few months. At the same time, positive reports on business activity in China cast doubt on the divergence in the economic growth of the US and the rest of the world. This robs the greenback of the main trump card.
Meanwhile, domestic problems are growing in the United States. Rumors about the impeachment of Donald Trump increase political risks, and the liquidity crisis makes us talk about the need to increase the Fed's balance sheet. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, in order to avoid a second rise in money market rates above 10%, the Fed will have to purchase bonds worth $315 billion from November 2019 to May 2020.
The White House is likely to continue to criticize Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues, thereby increasing the chances of easing the Fed's monetary policy, including the revival of QE. At the same time, D. Trump seems to be beginning to realize that he has played in the trade wars. Starting October 18, the United States imposes duties of 10% and 25% on European goods worth $7.5 billion. According to Airbus estimates, tariffs will have a negative impact on 275 thousand jobs in the United States, since 40% of components for European aircraft are made in America. .
Disappointing reports on business activity in the manufacturing sector and employment in the US private sector reinforced investors' concerns about weak figures for the US labor market in September. If this release also disappoints, then the EUR/USD pair will be able to continue to grow to 1.1-1.1015. However, for starters, the "bulls" need to overcome the resistance at 1.096-1.0965.
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