10.10.201909:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD on 10/10/2019

In the morning, the market already began to prepare for the publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee for Operations on the Open Market, hoping to nevertheless see at least some hints of an approaching recession in it. Thus, the dollar, albeit slightly, still lost its position although the hopes of speculators did not materialize. On the other hand, the contents of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations fully coincided with the words of Jerome Powell, which he spoke during his press conference. It can be recalled that then, the head of the Federal Reserve System said that the regulator did not see any signs of an approaching recession, thereby making it clear that no more measures should be taken to mitigate monetary policy. However, the dollar did not win back its losses, since its morning decline, shortly before the publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, was justified in the form OF jolts data on open vacancies. The number of which decreased from 7,174 thousand to 7,051 thousand. The decrease in the number of open vacancies is a deterioration of the situation in the labor market, as it indicates the possibility of an increase in the unemployment rate.

In Europe, some data has already begun to be published, which, frankly, causes some concern. Although, the growth rate of industrial production in the Netherlands accelerated from 0.6% to 0.9%. And in Italy, they expect that the decline in industrial production by 0.7% will finally be replaced by growth, albeit by 0.1%. However, in Germany, despite a 0.5% increase in imports, exports declined by 1.8%. And in France, the decline in industrial production intensified from -0.2% to -0.5%. In addition to Italy, the UK should also report, in which the pace of industrial production should remain unchanged. The truth is not growth, but a decline of 0.9%.

Industrial Production (UK):

However, few people are interested in all these data today, as inflation data in the United States are in the spotlight. Almost all forecasts indicate that inflation should accelerate, from 1.7% to at least 1.8%. A number of forecasts show an increase of up to 1.9%. Obviously, if the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will receive an excellent opportunity for steady growth. But still, do not forget that recent data on producer prices turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts, and showed a serious slowdown in growth. Given the fact that producer prices are a leading indicator for inflation, one should not exclude the possibility that inflation data will turn out to be different than expected. It is clear that in this case, the dollar will rapidly lose its position. Well, it's quite obvious that against the background of inflation data, investors will completely ignore the data on applications for unemployment benefits. The total number of which may increase by 2 thousand. Even the scale of changes is so small that without the publication of inflation data on applications for unemployment benefits, no one would pay attention.

Inflation (United States):

The euro/dollar currency pair returned to the same framework again after a local breakdown of the lower boundary of the flat channel 1.0960 / 1.0990 (1.1000), focusing near the boundary of 1.0990 (1.1000). It is likely to assume that in the case of a clear fixation of the price higher than 1.1010, it is possible to maintain an upward sentiment, otherwise, we will see a reversal movement within the previously designated boundaries.

The pound/dollar currency pair, after touching a local minimum on October 1 (1.2200), felt periodic support in front of itself, slowing downward movement and forming stagnation. It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within 1.2190 / 1.2250 will not last long and it is worthwhile to carefully analyze the fixation points outside the designated boundaries.