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The ever-increasing frequency of statements that Boris Johnson will leave Brussels on Friday, where he will attend the summit of the heads of the countries of the European Union, of which the United Kingdom is still a member, with a new divorce agreement, is pushing the pound up. Thus, it creates a strong feeling that almost a three-year saga with the most scandalous divorce in history is coming to an end. However, it is completely incomprehensible how expensive this divorce will be. After all, it's not even clear who will ultimately pay alimony to whom. About this, let's not try to think about it.
At the same time, the enthusiastic tracking of the secular chronicle distracts the attention of investors again from what is happening in front of them. However, inflation in the UK did not accelerate from 1.7% to 1.8%. Instead, it remained the same. Thus, there is simply no hope that companies will grow profits. However, in the United States, there was no particular reason for joy, because the growth rate of retail sales slowed down from 4.4% to 4.1%.
Inflation (UK):
It is obvious that the informational background will simply go off scale today, as all attention will be focused on the summit of the European Union. The only issue that will be considered in essence is, of course, Brexit. If everything goes smoothly, and the heads of the European Union countries speak positively on this topic, then the pound will continue its growth. However, if there is at least some hint that the current attempt to conclude a deal will be a failure, then the pound will fly down at such a speed that even coffee will not have time to brew. At the same time, it's difficult to even imagine the depth of the fall. In addition, it is clear that no one will even take a second to even look at the data on retail sales in the UK. The growth rate of which may accelerate from 2.7% to 3.2%, which seriously smooth over the negativity associated with the stability of inflation.
Retail Sales (UK):
The GBP / USD pair continues to surprise speculators with an unstoppable upward move, reaching not just the range level of 1.2770, but locally breaking it [1.2875]. In fact, everything that is happening on the market is the purest emotions of the market participants and nothing more. Thus, if growth is based on expectations, what will happen if they do not coincide - correctly, the same thing, but in mirror image. Considering the trading chart in general terms, there is literally vertical growth, not one of the levels did not restrain buyers and the test quotation went above the second-order correction [06/25/2019], which is a signal of a possible change in trend.
It is likely to assume that the temporary pullback that we see now is just one of the stages of a future swing, where a decline to 1.2730-1.2700 is possible at first. But after which, jumps will occur on the market depending on the incoming information regarding Brexit.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions in terms of fixing prices above the maximum of the past day 1.2875.
- We consider short positions in terms of a step-wise move to the direction of 1.2730-1.2700 --- 1.2620-1.2500. The tactic is to fix the price outside the specified coordinates. In the case of a negative decision on the divorce proceedings [Brexit], the movement can be solid in the form of inertia, overcoming all the previously indicated coordinates.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators on the minute intervals took a pullback position, signaling sales. The deeper time sections, hourly and daily, are focused on earlier impulses. Thus, maintaining an upward interest.
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