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The GBP/USD pair jumped to the level of 1.2990 on the announcement that British parliamentarians supported Brexit's deal with the EU Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but then fall to 1.2840, as deputies refused full approval of the "divorce" agreement in three days, deciding that this takes more time.
On the one hand, the fact that the deal was approved is an important victory for the British prime minister. His predecessor, Theresa May, failed to bring her version of the agreement with the EU through the House of Commons even with three attempts. On the other hand, the failure of the vote on the expedited procedure for considering the Brexit bill is a defeat that puts an end to B. Johnson's hopes of achieving Britain's exit from the EU before October 31.
After the vote, the head of government said that he was pausing the discussion of the bill until Brussels formally responded to a request for a new Brexit suspension on Saturday, but sooner or later the United Kingdom would leave the alliance on conditions approved on Tuesday.
European Council President Donald Tusk said he would recommend EU leaders to grant Foggy Albion a respite until January 31.
What happens next?
According to The Guardian, a source in the government of B. Johnson said that early elections to the British Parliament – the only way out of this situation.
"Parliament and Jeremy Corbyn continue to vote to delay Brexit. On Saturday, lawmakers asked for a delay until January, and today they missed their last chance. If Brussels approves this postponement, the only thing left for the country to move forward is early elections. This Parliament has broken down. The British will have to choose whether they want to end Brexit with B. Johnson or take 2020 with two referendums: on Brexit and Scotland with J. Corbyn," the source said.
If the early elections are announced and the conservatives win them, then B. Johnson will receive the confidence mandate necessary to complete Brexit in his scenario. If the Labor Party wins the election, then the "divorce" process will begin first – the opposition leader J. Corbin considers it necessary to hold a second referendum on Brexit.
"The pound could fall by 2% in a scenario with a longer Brexit delay. However, if new parliamentary elections are called in the United Kingdom, this will have a positive impact on the British currency. Recent polls show that B. Johnson will regain the majority. And this will increase the chances that the version of the "divorce" agreement promoted by him will pass through Parliament," Wells Fargo currency strategists believe.
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