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For almost a month, gold has been trading in the range of $1,475 to 1,520 an ounce in search of a new driver that could help it leave. "Bears" believe that the rates of the global debt market are unlikely to go down, as the potential for monetary expansion of the ECB, the Bank of Japan and other regulators is limited. They nod to the S&P 500's proximity to record highs, high risk appetite and investor flight from safe-haven assets. "Bulls", on the contrary, are confident that the warming of relations between the US and China, on the one hand, and Britain and the EU, on the other, will turn speculators away from the US dollar. Taking into account the fact that the precious metal is quoted in this currency, the correction of the USD index will make it possible to gain a foothold above the $1500 per ounce mark.
Looking at the confident pace of the S&P 500, it is difficult to believe that buyers of US stocks are threatened by something. Especially when Washington and Beijing agreed on a truce in the trade war, and the Fed is going to cut the Federal funds rate for the third time in 2019. Nevertheless, since January 2018, investments in the stock index have lost 13% to investments in US Treasury bonds, taking into account coupon payment. There is an opinion that the world stock market entered a bearish trend since the beginning of last year (German indices and indices of developing countries have lost since 19% of their value in dollar terms, European - 14%), and only the strength of the US economy and support from the White House and the Federal Reserve do not allow the S&P 500 to plunge into a deep correction.
Stock Index Dynamics
US macroeconomic statistics are deteriorating. Disappointing data on business activity, inflation, retail sales and industrial production suggests that the US economy is not as strong as is commonly believed. It slows down, so that the dollar and the S&P 500 lose important support. But if the stock index can count on Donald Trump and the Fed rate cut, then the US currency will not be too good if the situation continues to develop in the same vein. In addition, the owner of the White House has repeatedly advocated the devaluation of the dollar in order to obtain a competitive advantage in trade.
If the bubble in the US stock market bursts, and the USD index continues to adjust due to the deteriorating health of the US economy, it will be difficult to find a better investment target than gold. In this regard, maintaining high demand for products oriented to the precious metals of specialized exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is not without logic. Unlike the ECB and the Bank of Japan, the potential for monetary expansion of the Fed does not look limited. Treasury bond yields have room to fall. This is good news for the bulls on XAU/USD.
Technically, going beyond the upper boundary of the triangle and breaking through resistance by $1,500 per ounce will increase the risks of the implementation of the Wolfe Wave pattern. Its first target is located near the $1,545 mark. The probability of futures quotes falling below the lower boundary of the triangle is less. However, if the bears still succeed, the precious metal risks falling to support at $1440-1445 per ounce.
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