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The pound bounced a little from side to side again, but this time not because of the ranting of politicians fighting for votes, but because of data on the labor market. The fact is that, in general, the data turned out to be extremely weak. Thus, the growth rate of average wages, excluding premiums, slowed down from 3.8% to 3.6%. The situation with the growth rates of the average wage, already taking into account premiums, is slightly better, as they slowed down from 3.7% to 3.6%. The decline in wage growth has never boded well, and always threatens to lower retail sales and inflation. Moreover, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased from 13.5 thousand to 33.0 thousand. So there is something to be sad about. But after the end of the day, the pound remained virtually unchanged. The thing is that the unemployment rate corrected the situation, which magically decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%.
And although many are clearly already tired of the endless wave of news from the United Kingdom, nevertheless, today will begin with exactly the same. However, the inflation data still cause somewhat a little more curiosity, especially since its decline is expected from 1.7% to 1.6%. Naturally, it will make everyone recall the results of a recent vote at the Bank of England regarding the refinancing rate, when two of the nine board members voted to lower the refinancing rate. After all, if inflation is reduced, then the leadership of the Bank of England may become more proponents of easing monetary policy, and the refinancing rate will be reduced earlier than expected. And such surprises bring investors only disappointment.
Inflation (UK):
However, inflation data in the UK today will only perform the function of warming up the public, before the publication of inflation data in the United States. It is clear that American statistics have much more weight. However, there is every reason to believe that there will be no reaction to American inflation at all, since it is expected that it will remain unchanged. Here are just such forecasts are not unanimous, and it is likely that inflation in the United States will drop from 1.7% to 1.6% just like in the United Kingdom. And if these fears are confirmed, then everyone will immediately forget about inflation in the UK, and begin to massively get rid of dollars. Just a further decline in inflation may lead to the fact that the Federal Reserve System will lower the refinancing rate once again by the end of this year.
Inflation (United States):
The pair GBP / USD, over the past day, showed extremely restrained market interest, with a volatility of slightly less than 60 points. In fact, there was a slowdown with a pullback, relative to the value of 1.2885, reflecting to us the middle of the existing flat 1.2770 / 1.3000. The end of the trading day was almost at the opening point, that is, having one of the "Doji" candle types on the market, which signaled a characteristic uncertainty in the actions of market participants. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see the same looped fluctuation between the two control levels 1.2770 / 1.3000, which formed after an inertial stroke.
It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within the existing accumulation of 1.2835 / 1.2870 will still remain in the market, where it is worthwhile to carefully analyze the behavior of the quote and the fixation point. Thus, for example, fixing in the region of 1.2870 / 1.2885, can be characterized as a way out of the cluster and the resumption of the upward movement. Meanwhile, an alternative development may occur in case of price fixing in the region of 1.2815 / 1.2835.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions in the case of price fixing in the region of 1.2870 / 1.2885.
- We consider short positions in the case of price fixing in the region of 1.2815 / 1.2835.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to the rebound from the target level and subsequent accumulation, indicators on the minute and hour segments occupied the upside. Daytime periods, in turn, still maintain a downward interest.
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