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GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade along with the correction level of 61.8% (1.2836) without any major changes in the rate. The downward trend range maintains the probability of falling quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2668), at the same time, the activity of traders is now low, despite a large number of economic reports and events this week. There are no new emerging divergences in any indicator today. I do not consider the option with the growth of the pair yet, as the information background fully supports the dollar, as well as the graphic picture.
It's no secret that Brexit will hit both the EU economy and the UK economy. Given the fact that both these economies are already experiencing far from their best times after Brexit still takes place, we should expect even stronger deterioration. This is understood by European parliamentarians, this is understood by most British parliamentarians. The best way out of this situation is still Brexit "with a deal", however, until Boris Johnson collects enough votes in Parliament in support of his agreement with Brussels, Brexit will not move "off the ground".
Meanwhile, President of the European Council Donald Tusk said during a speech in Bruges that "Britain, after leaving the European Union, will become an outsider, and the main battlefield will be occupied by the European Union, America, and China." Mr. Tusk also said that "one of his British friends" believes that Brexit is the end of the British Empire. "Only as part of the European Union can the UK maintain its role as a strong power." On the possible cancellation of Brexit, Tusk remains optimistic. He quotes the words of Hannah Arendt (the founder of the theory of totalitarianism) "only when people start to think that the process is irreversible, it becomes irreversible." Therefore, Donald Tusk urges (whom?) not to give up. The president of the European Council also admitted that he regularly approved Brexit date transfers in the hope that London would change its mind and express a desire to remain in the EU.
Whether this is the end or not for the British Empire will only become clear when and if Britain leaves the European Union. So far, it is all going to early elections, and only after that Brexit itself will resume with a new composition of parliament.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pound/dollar pair closed above the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2836), however, given the downward trend channel and its small width, I do not expect a serious increase in the British currency. Perhaps the situation will change if the quotes perform a close over the downward channel, but so far this has not happened, I support the option of falling to the lower line of the channel, and possibly lower. Information background today may cause demand for the pound, as the report on retail sales in the UK promises to be quite strong. However, it is precisely the trend range that does not yet suggest strong movements in any direction.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
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