03.12.201910:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD and AUDUSD: Donald Trump's Christmas gifts. RBA leaves rates unchanged but does not exclude their reduction

The American president decided to make a New Year's gift to Argentina and Brazil in the form of the introduction of protective duties on aluminum, as a result of which prices jumped immediately by 2%, while copper and lead fell in price. This decision was dictated by the large-scale devaluation, which was recently carried out by the authorities of Brazil and Argentina.

Also, the US presidential administration announced that they are considering the option of introducing duties on French goods, for a total of $2.4 billion. Such a measure would be France's response to the recent introduction of a digital services tax, which also includes several leading US companies operating in France.

The weak report on manufacturing activity in the US also led to the weakening of the US dollar against several world currencies, especially against the euro. Yesterday, the Institute for Supply Management released a report indicating that the manufacturing index in November this year not only remained below 50 points but also declined further, falling to 48.1 points against 48.3 points in October this year. Economists had expected the index to be 49.4 points. Let me remind you that the index values below 50 indicate a decline in the activity. Among the problems that affected the activity can be attributed to trade differences between the US and China, as well as the weak growth of foreign economies that affected exports.

Manufacturing activity data from HIS Markit was more positive. The report indicated that the November value of the index rose to the level of 52.6 points, while in October the index was equal to 51.3 points. Despite this, the agency noted that sentiment in the business community remains alarmingly subdued, and many companies are still very concerned about the devastating effect of duties and trade wars.

As for the data on the construction sector, they passed unnoticed for the market. According to the report of the Department of Commerce, construction spending in the United States in October of this year decreased by 0.8% and amounted to 1.291 trillion dollars. Economists had expected costs to rise by 0.5%.

The technical picture in EURUSD has changed. At the moment, the bears are actively protecting the resistance area of 1.1090, the breakthrough of which can lead to a new wave of growth of risky assets to the highs of 1.1110 and 1.1140. The downward correction will be limited to the intermediate support of 1.1055, where the bulls will try to return to the market to maintain the upward trend, but the larger players will be visible at the low of 1.1035.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar continued its rise against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75% today while noting that some global economic risks have recently decreased.

However, the reduction in fears does not mean that rates will not be lowered, if necessary. The RBA believes that it should be expected to maintain low-interest rates for a long period, as the consequences of the trade conflict between the US and China for a long time will affect global trade and investment. The Australian regulator expects a gradual acceleration in inflation.

As for the technical picture of the AUDUSD pair, the bulls managed to keep the pair in the ascending channel, forming its lower border from the minimum of 0.6750. At the moment, the focus will be on the resistance of 0.6890, the breakthrough of which will provide growth to the level of 0.6940, where sellers of the Australian dollar will be more active. If the trading instrument decreases, buyers will defend the support of 0.6750 by all means, as its breakthrough will lead to the pair's return to the lows of the year.