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The escalation of the crisis in the Middle East between the United States and Iran is only intensifying, which can serve as a prologue to a major war, unless, of course, the parties find a way to stop.
The news that Iran attacked US military bases in Iraq led to a fall in Asian stock indices as expected and an increase in demand for defensive assets, although this did not cause a depreciation of the US dollar in general.
In the wake of these events, gold quotes rose sharply, and the yen and the Swiss franc strengthened, while the yield on American treasuries fell sharply. And although, partially protective assets declined in price after sharp movements, and the dollar receives some support according to the dynamics of the ICE index, you should not expect that the situation will normalize and everything will change. Such dynamics can be explained, on the one hand, by a short-term speculative game, and, on the other, by the desire to see how Washington will respond to Tehran's actions, especially on Tuesday, D. Trump said that he would make a statement on Wednesday regarding the situation in the Middle East.
Assessing the general picture that is taking shape in the world, primarily in the political confrontation between the United States and Iran, it can be said with a high degree of probability that this event will remain in the top of the news and dominate others, unless, of course, the States do not back down, fearing the big and a bloody war with Iran.
As for the likely dynamics of the currency exchange market, it will fully depend on the development of events. Thus, we expect that the most dynamic movements will be in pairs US dollar / Japanese yen and US dollar / Swiss franc, as well as in gold in both the spot and futures markets.
It can be assumed that if Trump's speech today turns out to be unexpectedly conciliatory, as has happened with North Korea before, then this can ease tension for a while, but only for a while, as America's domestic political problems as well as the presidential election campaign will require another demonstration of strength. At the same time, if his statement is hawkish and with new threats against Tehran, this will lead to a sharp decline in demand for risky assets again and an increase in the price of gold, as well as a strengthening of the yen, franc and an increase in demand for American Treasury, paired with other government bonds of economically strong countries.
Forecast of the day:
We believe that gold quotes will resume growth by 1645.00 after some likely minor correction by 1578.00 if Trump comes up with new threats against Iran.
We expect a similar reaction from the pair USDJ/PY. We consider it possible to resume its sales on a negative background with the goal of 107.20.
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