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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On March 25, the European currency continued its difficult growth process. During the trading day, the pair performed a return to the upward trend line, which continues to define the current mood of traders as "bullish". However, after the rebound of quotes from this line, a reversal was made in favor of the European currency and the growth process resumed. Thus, the euro currency retains the probability of growth in a pair with the US currency. The information background in the world now allows for the growth of the euro, as America is slowly becoming a new center of the coronavirus epidemic, catching up with Italy and China, which no longer records new infections. All this leads to the fact that the Fed and the US Congress must take huge measures to stimulate the economy, which reduces the popularity of the US currency in the international currency market.
EUR/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair also continues the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.0950), which is the first target level according to the old Fibonacci grid. The pair's rebound from this Fibo level will work in favor of the US currency and resume falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0778). Closing quotes above this level will allow traders to expect continued growth towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.1054). No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today, and the pair's amplitude remains high enough that there is still a panic mood in the market, although it is not as strong as it was a week ago.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the picture for the EUR/USD pair also implies the continuation of the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0965) for the new grid of Fibo levels, which is built on the last fall in quotes on March 9-20. Thus, at the moment, the pair has not even worked out the minimum necessary level of correction. Therefore, it has the potential to continue the growth of quotes. The Fibo level of 38.2% on the daily chart and the level of 76.4% on the 4-hour chart is almost the same, so the pair can rebound from them with a reversal in favor of the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pair's quotes also continue the process of weak growth. And if it persists throughout the week, then the breakdown of the lower line of the "narrowing triangle" can be considered false. In this case, the euro currency will have a very good chance of resuming the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.1600 or the upper line of the triangle. In principle, this option is now the most likely.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 25, Germany released three secondary indicators for assessing the current situation and economic expectations, each of which turned out to be slightly worse than the expectations of traders, and did not arouse any interest from these same traders. In the US, a report on orders for durable goods was released, but it did not affect the course of trading in any way.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in GDP for the quarter (14:30 GMT).
US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (14:30 GMT).
On March 26, two of the most important reports will be released in the US. If there are no surprises in the US GDP, the growth will be 2.1% y/y, then the number of new applications of American citizens for unemployment benefits can be almost any. And the higher this number is, the more likely it is that the US dollar will continue to fall today.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
The euro currency this week shows a desire to continue the recovery against the US dollar. According to the latest COT report, the total number of short contracts for major market players was more than the total number of long contracts. Thus, from the new COT report, which will be released tomorrow, I expect a decrease in the total number of short contracts. Also, an important factor will be the decrease in the number of short in the "Commercial" group, which has an advantage on speculators, therefore, it now has a greater influence on the euro/dollar exchange rate.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
The situation for the EUR/USD pair is a bit confusing. The COT report suggests that bear traders remain strong, but a change in the picture is also possible. Thus, I recommend to stay in purchases of the pair with the targets of 1.0950-1.0965 and the stop-loss level under the trend line on the hourly chart (and further to 1.1068), and to sell – in case of consolidation under the trend line on the hourly chart with the target of 1.0637.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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