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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! There were no significant changes in the hourly chart on Monday, April 6. Quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and began to grow in the direction of the downward trend line, which continues to support the "bearish" mood among traders. The rebound of the pair from this line today will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of falling quotes. Closing above the trend line will allow traders to expect some growth of the pair. There were no major events in the world yesterday. Only the European Union decided in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic to impose retaliatory duties on American imports, arguing that "in difficult times, Europe counted on the abolition of unfair duties." There were no other economic events. The COVID-2019 virus continues to spread across the EU and America. There are early signs of slowing the spread of infection, but so far these are just signs, not facts.
EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the EU currency and began the process of returning to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0840), under which it had previously performed a consolidation. The rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall of the pair. This rebound may coincide with the rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart and traders, in this case, will receive a double signal to sell the euro currency. Fixing the euro/dollar exchange rate above the level of 23.6% will work in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair made a consolidation under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0840), which allows traders to count on a further drop in quotes. The picture is the same as on the 4-hour chart, since there is an identical grid of Fibo levels in action.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the lower line of the "narrowing triangle". Thus, at the moment, I believe that this line was rejected. If this is the case, then traders can expect the quotes to grow in the long term in the direction of approximately 1.1600 (near the upper line of the "triangle").
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 6, America and the European Union did not have any important reports or economic events. Thus, during the day, traders were deprived of information background. Hopes that traders will start working out Friday's news were not fulfilled.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
Germany - change in industrial production (08:00 GMT).
On April 7, the news calendar for the United States and the European Union again does not contain any important reports and events. You can only pay attention to the report on industrial production in Germany, and then only for the sake of form. Traders continue to pay more attention to graphical analysis and the COVID-2019 virus epidemic in the world. According to the latest data, the number of cases is approaching 1.35 million.
COT(Commitments of Traders) report:
According to the latest COT report, the "bearish" mood among major market players persists. But at the same time, their activity is also falling, as the last three reports of Commitments of Traders showed a reduction in the total number of contracts. Meanwhile, the balance of power between long and short contracts does not change. Thus, we can even assume that the current ratio has already been taken into account in market prices. A larger number of contracts are still in the hands of commercial companies that use currency transactions to hedge risks and for operating activities, rather than to generate profits.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
Now I recommend being careful with the new sales of the euro currency. There are no signals for new sales yet. But a rebound from the level of 1.0840 on the 4-hour chart, combined with a rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart, can serve as such a signal. The target will then be 1.0638. To buy a pair, you need to close the rate above the level of 1.0840 and close above the trend line on the hourly chart. The target is 1.0964.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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