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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began a systematic fall in quotes. Thus, in the most short-term time plan, the "bullish" mood of traders remains, as the pair closed above the trend line. There are no new graphical constructions at the moment. All the latest news again does not directly concern the macro-economic sphere. For example, in the European Union, a group of 19 Finance Ministers continues to negotiate a 540 billion euro stimulus package. The disagreement so far is that not all countries need help at the expense of credit funds, which will then have to be paid back with interest. However, the EU means just helping each of its members at the expense of other members. It is logical that more successful countries, such as Germany, are opposed to various types of loans and the issuance of pan-European bonds. However, the Ministers will probably still come to common opinion, and help will be provided to the European economy.
EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and returned to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0840), after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. However, the rebound of the pair's quotes from the Fibo level of 23.6% allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and a resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964). Closing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of the US currency and continue falling towards the next corrective level of 0.0% (1.0638). New emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the euro and fixed above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0840), which now allows traders to expect some growth in quotes. The picture remains identical to the 4-hour chart, since the same grid of Fibo levels is in effect.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the lower line of the "narrowing triangle". Thus, at the moment, I believe that this line has been rejected. If this is the case, then traders can expect the quotes to grow in the long term in the direction of approximately 1.1600 (near the upper line of the "triangle"). However, closing under the "triangle" will work in favor of the US currency and, possibly, a new long fall.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 8, the minutes of the last Fed meeting were released in the evening, but this document did not contain any important information. The Fed has indicated its intention to keep rates low for as long as it takes for the economy to fully recover from the impact of the coronavirus epidemic.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
United States - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (14:30 GMT).
United States - Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will deliver a speech (16:00 GMT).
On April 9, the EU news calendar again does not contain anything interesting, and in America, the most important report on applications for unemployment benefits will be released, according to which the total number of applications may grow by another 5 million. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also deliver a speech today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed an even reduction in the number of long and short contracts among major market players. The advantage is small, but short-term contracts are more than 27,000. However, speculators have recently been actively reducing sales of the euro, which gives hope for continued growth. On Friday, a new COT report will be released, and we will see whether the trend of getting rid of short contracts by the "Non-commercial" group will continue. If so, the chances of the planned growth of the euro will increase.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Now I recommend being careful with the new sales of the euro, as there are no signals yet. Fixing the pair's exchange rate at the level of 23.6% on the 4-hour chart will allow selling the euro with the target of 1.0638. I recommend buying the pair when the quotes rebound from the level of 23.6% with the target of 1.0964.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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