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Oil suddenly came out on top in the news feeds, pushing coronavirus into second place. All the media are busy discussing negotiations to reduce oil production. Although there is no final agreement yet, it is clear to everyone that talks are going well. At least no one gets up and leaves. However, Mexico tried to make a similar maneuver, but quickly announced the volumes by which it can reduce daily production. The most important thing is that the largest exporters seem to have found mutual understanding. And oddly enough, this has a direct relationship to the dollar. And in a negative way. After all, if the major oil exporters can agree, the oil market will inevitably stabilize, and given the incredible dependence of the world economy on oil supplies, this will be the beginning of stabilization of the entire global financial market. And if the markets calm down, then the risks are reduced, and the huge mass of capital that has recently been running away from risk will once again flow out of the United States. So this is not the best scenario for the dollar rate. The only thing that has a positive effect on the dollar so far is that the agreement itself has not yet been finalized, and its specific details have not even been specified. So far, we are talking about the parties' agreement in principle to make mutual concessions.
At the same time, we must admit that US data continues to cause horror. The situation in the labor market is getting worse and worse every week. This time, however, there were no new records for the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be 6,606 thousand. That is 261 thousand less than last week, when the historical record was set. But the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits reached a record high. They should have been 6,990 thousand, which is already the highest in history, but in fact, they turned out to be as much as 7,455 thousand. So the situation in the United States labor market is even worse than expected. This is the third consecutive week. We must admit that the weakening of the dollar against the single European currency, in fact, began immediately after the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits.
Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):
Today, Europe and the United States celebrate Good Friday, which means that markets will be closed. Therefore, the market will essentially stand still. However, US inflation data will be released today, which can still revive the market a little. Although response to this data will be on Monday. So, inflation should fall from 2.3% to 1.5%, and such a sharp slowdown may be a reason for the Federal Reserve to once again think about reducing the refinancing rate. This will automatically lead to a decrease in the yield of government debt securities. And their profitability has already significantly declined recently, further into the negative zone. So investors will clearly not be very happy with the prospect of a lower refinancing rate.
Inflation (United States):
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that there is a correctional move from the support level of 1.0775 since the beginning of the trading week, where in the end we managed to pass more than 170 points. In fact, we have a recovery of about 50% relative to the earlier inertia move, where a small stagnation was formed at the conditional peak.
In terms of general analysis of the trading schedule, the daily period, it is worth considering that all past movements had the form of inertia, with a working out of about 70-80%.
We can assume that the stagnation at the peak of the correction course of 1.0920/1.0950 is temporary, where the occurrence of local impulses is not excluded, working for the breakdown of the established boundaries.
We will specify all of the above into trading signals:
- Buy positions are considered higher than 1.0955, with the prospect of a move to 1.0970-1.1000.
- Positions for sale are considered lower than 1.0915, with the prospect of a move to 1.0890-1.0850.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that due to the current corrective move, the indicators of technical instruments have taken an upward position, signaling a purchase.
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