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How will the world change after the pandemic? People will work more remotely and travel less. If so, global demand for oil up to COVID-19 at just over 100 million b/d may become extreme, suggesting limited potential for a Brent and WTI rally. However, this opinion is not shared by all. The IEA believes that remote work and the vaccine will allow people to travel more, with a preference for personal rather than public transport, leading to a recovery in global demand for black gold in 2020-2021. As early as next year, the indicator may rewrite the maximum. In this scenario, the northern campaign of both varieties will be long.
The oil market is returning to its normal state, as evidenced not only by a reduction in the spread of Brent and WTI from more than $ 10 to $ 2 per barrel, but also by a decrease in the volume of black gold stored in the sea. As of May 21, according to research by the analytical company Vortexa, the indicator fell to 258 million barrels, which is 7% less than the maximum that took place a week earlier. Prices are rising not only because of expectations of a rapid recovery in demand against the backdrop of the opening of the world's leading economies, but also because of a significant supply constraint.
Russia claims that oil supplies in May decreased by 14-15 million b/d, and estimates the contribution of Canada, Norway, and the United States at 3.5-4 million b/d. Moscow remains committed to fulfilling OPEC+ obligations, which does not allow us to expect a "bearish" surprise for black gold at the June meeting of the cartel and other producer countries. Oil production in Russia in May fell to 8.5 million b/d.
According to estimates of the consulting company Wood Mackenzie, the production of black gold in the United States is falling faster than previously estimated. We are talking about 2.3 million b/d or -20% of the March peak of 13.24 million b/d. Features of the technological process of shale production suggest rapid depletion of wells, so to maintain production at a high level, it is necessary to drill and drill again. This is not currently happening. The number of rigs from Backer Hughes in the week to May 22 fell to the lowest level since 2009, which signals a further reduction in US production.
Dynamics of oil production in the United States
Dynamics of the number of drilling rigs in the United States
According to TD Securities, the worst for the oil market is over. And I will allow myself to agree with the company. The OPEC+ contract to reduce production, the forced decline in black gold production in the United States, coupled with increased global demand amid the opening and recovery of the economies of China, the USA, the eurozone and other countries, lead to a decrease in surplus. According to the Russian Ministry of Energy, the indicator will decrease by 7-12 million b/d by June or July. This circumstance allows you to hold the longs formed on breakouts of resistance at $ 25.75 and $ 28 per barrel for Brent and increase them on pullbacks.
Technically, the North Sea variety continues to move within the ascending trading channel and is heading for the target of 88.6% on the "Shark" pattern. It corresponds to the level of $ 50.9 per barrel.
Brent, the daily chart
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