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Good day, dear traders!
The trading for May has ended, which the market closed last Friday. Before proceeding to the analysis of the charts of the pound/dollar currency pair, let's briefly talk about the topical topic of COVID-19 and the most important macroeconomic data that are expected in the first week of summer.
It is no secret that many European countries are gradually easing restrictions that were imposed due to the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The United Kingdom is no exception, which is gradually returning to normal life. However, as many British scientists believe, the current easing of restrictive measures may be the main cause of the second wave of the epidemic of a new type of coronavirus infection. In this regard, the government of the United Kingdom is criticized for easing the quarantine, since the number of infections in England is about 8,000 people per day. I emphasize that this is only in England!
The scandal surrounding the chief adviser to the British Prime Minister has not subsided. It is known that Dominic Cummings violated the quarantine measures in March and took his son to relatives for safety reasons since Cummings and his wife allegedly had symptoms of COVID-19.
The main macroeconomic event of the current week will certainly be the report on the US labor market, which will be published this Friday at 13:30 London time. From the British statistics, it is worth paying attention to the PMI indices. However, in terms of importance, these reports clearly fall short of American labor statistics.
Monthly
Well, as we can see, the pound/dollar currency pair ended the May trading with a decline. However, the long lower shadow, which is larger than the bearish body of the candle, gives hope for the June growth of the pound/dollar pair. At the same time, an additional signal for strengthening the "British" can be considered a bullish divergence (or convergence) of the MACD indicator.
In fact, the first day of summer trading started very positively for the pair. The quote is strengthening, and trading is conducted near 1.2400. If the rise continues, the nearest resistance may occur at 1.2462, where the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator passes. More distant targets of probable growth are in the area of 1.2600, where the maximum values of April trading are marked, and the Kijun line is also located. To implement a bearish scenario, judging by the monthly timeframe, it is necessary to update the lows of the previous month and break through the level of 1.2073.
Weekly
The pair finished the last week of spring trading with strong growth and closed the session at 1.2346. This is significantly higher than the previous highs of 1.2294 and the important mark of 1.2300. Against the US dollar, the pound rose by 1.43%, and at the time of writing, continues to strengthen, trading just above the equally significant level of 1.2400. If the pair continues to grow, its nearest target will be the Kijun line, which runs at 1.2462, that is, the same place as the monthly Tenkan. A little higher, at 1.2485, there is a strong resistance of sellers, and then an important psychological level of 1.2500.
Judging by the technical picture on the weekly chart, there is every reason to assume further strengthening of the quote to the designated goals, so the main trading idea for the pound/dollar is buying. I recommend taking a closer look at opening long positions on the pound after short-term declines in the price zone of 1.2395-1.2375. If the situation and market sentiment change, this recommendation will be adjusted. In the meantime, we are preparing to buy British currency.
Good luck!
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