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All the arguments about what measures the Bank of England will take quickly came to naught since in general everything was predicted by the market, and the Central Bank was surprised by its dryness and only a couple of statements that did not clarify the situation much. Most likely, a wait-and-see position is now the best scenario for the UK economy. It was expected that the regulator would say something about the effectiveness of recently implemented rate cuts, which could affect the reduction in the cost of borrowing in commercial banks, however, this did not happen. Let me remind you that during the coronavirus pandemic, the Bank of England twice lowered the key interest rate, which in March fell to 0.1% from 0.75%.
There is also no information about whether the TFSME program, which gives banks and building societies access to four-year loans at a rate close to the key interest rate, has been changed.
The only solution was to increase the bond purchase program, which gives the market a delay until the August meeting, before which traders will again return to talk about the introduction of negative interest rates. However, this outcome is still unlikely. In general, the UK banking system, as in other developed countries, is not designed for such changes in monetary policy, and if the Bank of England does make such a decision, it will have a serious impact on the income and profits of banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. Accordingly, the reaction of the British pound to this decision will be similar. However, you should not be afraid that the fall will occur simultaneously since markets will approach this scenario gradually and the fact that the key interest rate has already been introduced will be taken into account in the quotes. So don't be surprised if the British pound resumes its bearish momentum in the summer months under the pretext of a lack of progress in trade negotiations and fears of a second wave of coronavirus.
But back to today's decision. The Bank of England left its key interest rate at 0.1%. The decision to keep the key rate at 0.1% was made with a vote ratio of 9 to 0. The regulator also increased the bond purchase program by 100 billion pounds, to 745 billion pounds, and only the chief economist of the Bank of England, Haldane, voted to keep the bond purchase program at 645 billion pounds.
The Bank said that it is ready to take further measures if the economy needs support, thereby making it clear that it is still going according to their plan and the economy does not need additional stimulus.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the bulls did not receive the necessary support from the statements of the Bank of England, which involved the pound in a new bearish trend. The next major support levels, if the bears achieve a breakout of the week's lows in the area of 1.2450 today, will be seen only in the area of 1.2370 and 1.2290.
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