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On Wednesday, while waiting for the result of the Federal Reserve meeting, the US dollar came under pressure again amid growing demand for risky assets, hopes that the regulator will not cut stimulus measures in the near future, even when the US economy begins to recover from the steep peak in which it found itself due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
It can be recalled that hopes for a reversal in the situation in the States and not only there, but in the world as a whole are supported by the expectation of the start of industrial production of vaccines. In America, Pfizer, along with its European partner BioNtech and Moderna, have announced the start of the third final round of vaccine testing, which is strengthening hopes. In this case, the dollar will continue to remain under pressure, continuing the global decline in the currency market.
The very same meeting of the Federal Reserve did not bring any surprises. Interest rate levels have been maintained at their previous levels, as have incentive programs. All the attention of market players was drawn to J. Powell's press conference, wherein he said the main thing is that the regulator will maintain all the parameters of monetary policy, as well as incentive measures, until it is convinced that the economy will not start on a stable track of growth. Moreover, he added what the markets were expecting and which fully coincided with our view on the outcome of the meeting. Powell gave a positive assessment of the overall situation, saying that overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, partly reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of loans to households and businesses in the country. In fact, he made it clear that the situation has improved since the spring, but the only hindrance is the pandemic. He said the economy will remain under pressure as long as COVID-19 remains significant.
Assessing the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, we can state that the regulator and its head were generally positive, which supported the American stock market and stimulated, albeit insignificantly, weakening of the dollar.
But despite this generally negative meeting for the US currency, the Fed meeting, in our opinion, the beginning of a correction in the currency market can be expected. Recently, the dollar has noticeably surrendered to the main currencies and from a technical point of view, it needs another negative impulse in order to correct it. They may be the publication of the following weak data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which will be released today. Their growth is expected to 1, 450 000 against 1, 416 000 a week earlier. If the data turns out to be no better than the consensus forecast, it is very likely that a pullback in the US currency rate will be observed today, which, if it does take place, will be only limited.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1760. A decline below this level on the background of possibly weak data on employment in the US will lead to a price correction, first to 1.1710, and then to 1.1660.
The USD/JPY pair may also be corrected to the level of 105.65 today.
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