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The EUR/USD currency pair has been following the rising channel for almost three weeks, changing the slope every now and then, but everything changed last Friday. For the first time in a long time, a correctional move appeared, which set a reverse movement from the level of 1.1900 towards 1.1740, that is, locally breaking through the lower border of the yellow channel.
The weakening of the European currency is associated not only with the technical fact of overbought (long-term strengthening), but also with fundamental analysis.
During the Friday afternoon, there was a wide flow of economic news from Europe, where the first estimate of an important indicator of EU GDP (Gross Domestic Product of the European Union), for the second quarter was published.
EU GDP year on year, shrinks by -15.0%
EU GDP qoq, shrinking -12.1%
This economic indicator, like GDP, expresses the value of all goods and services sold in the euro area for a specified period. They indicate the trend of economic development, its growth or contraction. The growth of the indicator indicates the strengthening of the European currency, while the decline in GDP indicates weakening.
Based on the published GDP indicators, we see that the EU economy is going through hard times, and this affects the rate of the euro.
Regarding the current development of the quote, a downward movement can be seen, where the quote managed to return within the blue trend lines, which had previously interacted with market participants in history.
For the technical analysis, in this case, we consider two possible developments of the quote at once:
The first option is based on the fact that the overbought rate of the European currency is still at a high level, which means that the corrective move can still hold on to the market. In this case, you should enter sell positions below 1.1740, in the direction of 1.1715-1.1650.
The second option considers a rebound from the blue trend lines, thereby resuming an upward trajectory. In this case, you should enter a buy position above 1.1800, in the direction of 1.1850-1.1900.
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