03.08.202012:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil again loses footing: cost of raw materials moved to negative correction

Oil prices on Monday moved to a negative correction, although trading on Friday last week reflected positive dynamics. With the onset of a new week, investors began to fear that oversupply would gradually appear on the market, which is caused by the softening of the OPEC agreement, as well as the continued increase in the number of coronavirus infections in the world, will inevitably lead to a decrease in demand for black gold.

Today, the most important and practically the main factor for limiting the demand for crude oil is the COVID-19 pandemic, the fight against which is entering a new phase in some regions and countries of the world. The data reflecting the difficult epidemiological situation in the world speaks for itself. So, from the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the total number of cases exceeded 18 million people, with more than 688 thousand deaths.

On August 1 of this year, the second part of the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production comes into force, which implies some repose, particularly, a partial restoration of black gold production with a total volume of 2 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, a sharp increase in the supply of raw materials to the market in the last month of summer is still not expected, since some countries did not fulfill the conditions of the previous stage of the contract and are forced to continue to reduce their production until they fully fulfill their obligations. In this regard, market participants are not yet giving in to unnecessary panic about the frantic growth in supply amid a potential decline in demand.

The news from the United States of America also became a supporting factor for oil, where by the end of the last week there was a reduction in oil producing stations by one unit. Now their number has reached 180 units. This is significantly lower than last year's level of 770 units.

The price of Brent crude oil futures contracts for October delivery on a trading floor in London went down by 0.3% or $ 0.13, leaving it at the level of $ 43.39 per barrel. Note that the auction on Friday ended with the growth in the price of raw materials by 0.6% or 0.27 dollars.

The price of futures contracts for WTI crude oil for September delivery on the electronic trading floor in New York also went down. Its reduction turned out to be more significant: in the morning the mark lost 0.52% or 0.21 dollars, which forced it to go to the level of $40.06 per barrel. Friday's trading closed with growth in the price of WTI by 0.9% or $ 0.35. Despite the current negative, the brand is still holding above the strategically and psychologically important mark of $ 40 per barrel.

In general, over the past week, crude oil has shown an increase in its quotes. Brent became more expensive by 5%, while WTI rose slightly less by 2.6%.

However, analysts do not predict a significant drop in raw materials this week, as the market will win back several factors that are pleasant for itself. The first of these is a report by the United States Energy Information Administration, which said that the volume of oil production in the country fell to 10 million barrels, while the previous level was around 11.4 million barrels. And if we take into account that the number of production stations has also decreased, then by the end of this week we can expect an even greater decline in production. This, of course, cannot but inspire market participants.

The second factor supporting oil is the weakening of the US dollar. The dollar index continues to decline against a basket of six major world currencies and has already reached its lowest values for more than two years. In July alone, it became 5% lower, and such a rapid fall has not happened for a long time. Investor interest thus shifted from the US dollar to crude oil.

However, despite the abundance of positive moments, in the long term, the price of crude oil may come under significant pressure, which will primarily be associated with the weakening of the global economy. So, as early as now, experts expect a decline of 4%, which corresponds to 3.5 trillion dollars. Earlier the figure was 3.7%.