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Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for EUR/USD
The data of the latest COT report (Commitments of Traders from 08/04/20) showed a significant increase again in open interest in the euro (704875; +29910). At the same time, it should be noted that the general trend of increasing positions by large players has not changed. The leading groups Non-Commercial (long +19982 - short -3107) and Commercial (long +3705 - short +27554) retain the same proportions in the distribution and investment of funds. Due to this, the total position remained with an overweight of short contracts and changed insignificantly (+760 in favor of bears). Amid the slowdown and no significant changes in the overall position of the main report, the Dealer Intermediary group (financial report) continues to increase the percentage gap of preferences (long 3.9% - short 67.8%), forming a new maximum of the indicator.
The main conclusion
The behavior of the major players has not changed. As a result, the deceleration and development of corrective decline on the daily and weekly upward trends are still relevant. Such sentiments have already been confirmed at the close of the last working week. The trend is likely to continue this week.
Technical picture
Technically, bulls took a pause after working out the weekly upward target for the breakout of the cloud (1.1695 - 1.1813). The target is strengthened by the lower border of the monthly cloud (1.1740). Holding positions above the tested levels and rebuilding the upward trend (1.1916) can inspire traders to rise to new exploits. Nevertheless, the force and attraction of the worked out landmarks are now able to restrain the development of the situation and the consolidation under them provokes the further development of the downward correction.
In the smaller halves, there is currently a struggle for key advantages. The bearish traders managed to go below the weekly long term trend, so the preponderance of forces is now on the side of the bears. The main downside targets are the minimum (1.1755), which allows to restore the H1 downward trend, and the support of the classic Pivot levels (1.1732 - 1.1680 - 1.1604). A consolidation above 1.1808-12 (pivot center + 1-week long-term trend) would question the bearish edge and could contribute to uncertainty. Other important upside targets today can be noted at 1.1860 (R1) - 1.1916 (last week's high) - 1.1936 (R2) - 1.198 (R3).
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)
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