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EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair again turned around in the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 and rose to the Kijun-sen line on the hourly timeframe of August 12. The price has been located between these two resistances in the last few days. Thus, we have two types of flat at once. The first is bounded by the 1.1702-1.1727 area at the bottom and the 1.1884-1.1910 area at the top, the second by the 1.1702-1.1727 area at the bottom and the Kijun-sen line at the top. In any case, the trend movement is now completely absent. Market participants continue to trade the pair between the specified areas and lines. Neither bears nor bulls have enough strength to take the pair out of the 1.17-1.19 range.
EUR/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe after traders failed to overcome the 1.1702-1.1727 area, which is quite logical. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, showed that the mood of professional traders did not change at all during the last reporting week (please be reminded that the report is published with a three-day delay) on July 29-August 4. The "non-commercial" category of traders opened 19,354 Buy-contracts and closed 3,561 Sell-contracts during this time period. Therefore, the net position for the most important category of traders has grown by 23,000 at once, which is a very large and eloquent indication of the current mood of the major players. The most important thing is that the report exactly matches what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the euro as a whole continued to grow until August 4. The euro did not suffer any losses during the next three trading days of the week. Thus, so far, everything is going to the point that the next COT report will show that non-commercial traders are increasing purchases. The pair lost about 120 points in the first two days of the week, but this drop is too weak to be reflected in the COT report.
The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair did not change again on Wednesday. We can only state that, according to the Johns Hopkins Institute, the number of daily recorded cases of coronavirus in the United States is decreasing. Recall that the coronavirus epidemic was probably the most significant reason for the dollar's fall in the last three months, along with the strongest fall in the US economy. Traders completely ignored Wednesday's macroeconomic reports. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump makes a new discouraging statement: "If I don't win the election, China will take over the United States. You will have to learn Chinese." Trump has again criticized the possible new US president Joe Biden, who continues to lead according to all the ratings and polls. No important macroeconomic publications in the United States or in the European Union on Thursday. Therefore, traders have no choice but to trade according to technical factors, as well as to continue to enjoy the regular "funny stories" from Trump.
Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 13:
1) Buyers continue to wait for the right moment to start actively trading again. To make new purchases of the euro, you are advised to wait until the price consolidates above the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910. Then we will recommend buying the pair while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2019. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 80 points. If the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line (1.1801), you can also open longs with the target of 1.1884.
2) Bears continue to experience big problems and cannot go below the 1.1715 level. We recommend opening sales after breaking through the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 while aiming for 1.1579. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 90 points. You can also consider small sales when the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line with the target of 1.1715.
We also recommend exploring the fundamental background in these articles:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 13. Knight's Move by Joe Biden. Kamala Harris appointed the post of vice president. US inflation begins to rise. Traders are selling the dollar again
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 13. UK is mired in its worst recession in its history. Trump will accelerate the development of the US vaccine against coronavirus
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