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GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair also continues to trade without a definite trend on August 12. If the euro currency was squeezed into two side channels, then approximately the same thing happened with the pound sterling. The pair has been trading between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines for the past few days, and in recent weeks it has been trading between the Senkou Span B line and the 1.3169 level. The story is the same. Bears can't, bulls don't want to. We are witnessing a flat for the second most popular currency pair. If traders manage to gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line (or the 1.2980 level), then the chances of a new downward trend will significantly increase. The upward trend line, built recently, did not deny the pair any support yesterday. The quotes overcame it several times during the day.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels moved down on the 15-minute timeframe, and changed their direction of movement every day, which is absolutely normal for a flat. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which was released on Friday, finally matched what is happening now in the market. Recall that two COT reports previously showed a decrease in the net position of non-commercial traders, which, in fact, means that the bullish mood is starting to weaken. That is, the most important category of "non-commercial" traders reduced (roughly speaking) purchases of the British pound during the past two weeks and at the same time the UK currency became more expensive. However, the latest COT report finally showed an increase in the number of Buy-contracts for non-commercial traders, by almost 5,000. At the same time, they also closed Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 3,500. Thus, the total net position for this category increased by 8,500. The pound lost no more than 170 points at the end of last week and the beginning of the new week, if you count from the last high. This is very small in the context of COT reports and the concept of a trend. This is not even a correction in the medium term.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was almost unambiguous on Wednesday, but, nevertheless, did not provoke a serious reaction from market participants. One GDP report was enough to send the pound into a knockdown. All three GDP indicators for the second quarter in the UK showed the strongest cuts. But! On the one hand, these are the numbers that traders were waiting for, and on the other – the currency can not decline if its country has such economic problems. However, the market is run by traders, that is, real people and companies. If they don't want to get rid of the pound, then no statistics or news will make them do it. At the same time, Head of Treasury Rishi Sunak said: "A few months ago, I said hard times are coming and today's figures show hard times are here. Hundreds of thousands of Brits have already lost their job and many more will (which is not true for unemployment rates-approx. author). We have an ambition to deliver upon our priorities and the promises we made, we've been through hopefully this once-in-a-lifetime episode, it has had an enormous impact on our economy, on jobs, our public finances and that means there are tough choices to come." This statement should also have been enough for the pound to fall by a hundred points... especially considering that the report on US inflation came out very encouraging.
There are two main options for the development of events on August 13:
1) Buyers as a whole continue to be dominant, but in general the pair began to move sideways. They did not manage to gain a foothold above the previous local high of 1.3169, thus, we recommend opening new purchases of the British currency, but not before breaking the 1.3169 level while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3275. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 90 points. You can also try to buy the pound when consolidating above the Kijun-sen, but this signal will be weak.
2) Bears continue to remain below the Kijun-sen line, but cannot overcome the Senkou Span B line. Thus, we advise you to wait until the Senkou Span B line (1.3010) has been overcome and only then open short positions with targets at the levels of 1.2956 and 1.2865. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 30 to 120 points.
We also recommend exploring the fundamental background in these articles:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 13. Knight's Move by Joe Biden. Kamala Harris appointed the post of vice president. US inflation begins to rise. Traders are selling the dollar again
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 13. UK is mired in its worst recession in its history. Trump will accelerate the development of the US vaccine against coronavirus
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